UBS 瑞银：中国 A股 市场展望

China A strategy market outlook 　　

（５２页） 01.19 英文 pdf

Our positive view on the long-term development of China's A-share market (SHCOMP Index) is based on the solid foundation laid down by the government's share reform programme. However, we believe market valuation is stretched because of extremely strong liquidity, but limited share supply. We believe consensus is too upbeat about a possible improvement in ROE. We estimate the SHCOMP Index will trade within a range of 2,185 to 2,901 in 2007

Contents page
Summary and Investment Case 3
— Long-term positive, but stretched valuation ................................................................... 3
— Market expectation on ROE: hope or hype?.................................................................. 3
— Share supply shortfall to ease in H107 .......................................................................... 3
— Rising volatility .............................................................................................................. 3
— Be defensive ................................................................................................................. 3
— B shares are value opportunities ................................................................................... 4
Valuation: all the good news priced in 5
— High expectation for improvement in ROE..................................................................... 8
Significant mis-match in demand and supply set to ease 12
— Share supply to increase from IPOs, placement and non-tradable shares....................17
Unmatched risk and return 20
Sector and stock selection 22
B shares offer a good opportunity 28
Appendix 30
From our economist 42

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-1-25 16:03:54编辑过]