中金公司：2月A股投资战略（英文版）　
CICC：Prefer the Defensive－February A-share Strategy
02.01      15页     英文
The A-share market continued to soar in January with the average price up more than 21%. The market boom is apparently liquidity-driven: (1) long-term government bond yields stayed at a low 3%; (2) money flowed from the banking system into the equity market; (3) trading volume expanded and share turnover quickened significantly, suggesting that the market has become more speculative



                                                          Contents
Liquidity Bubble?.......................................................................................................................3
Market Performance Review.......................................................................................................3
Market Outlook ...........................................................................................................................6
Recommendation: Diversify and Switch to a Defensive Portfolio........................................10
Charts
Chart 1: Sector performance in Dec. 2006 and Jan. 2007 .................................................................. 4
Chart 2: Corporate time deposits became current deposits and flowed into the stock market ........... 4
Chart 3: Growth of new A-share account numbers accelerated ......................................................... 5
Chart 4: China’s industrial value added and the CICC CLI (log detrended ratio) ............................. 8
Chart 5: OECD Leading Indicator...................................................................................................... 9
Tables
Table 1: Sensitivity of fair stock price to long-term interest rate and ROE ....................................... 6
Table 2: Sector earnings forecasts and valuations in CICC A-share universe.................................... 9
Table 3: Asset allocation recommendations (Sector distribution, earnings growth forecasts and
valuations of listcos in the CICC A-share universe)........................................................................ 10
Table 4: Top Pick Stocks ...................................................................................................................11
Table 5: CICC A-share universe (as of Jan.25, 2007) ...................................................................... 12