DB 德银：07年中国投资主题和策略　

China Themes and Strategy for 2007

01.11 ５７页 英文

Our 2007 economic outlook is characterized by a very soft landing of GDP growth, an acceleration of FAI growth from Q1, a deceleration in export growth, and structural changes supporting consumer goods, infrastructure, and services.
We expect another 10-15 ppt upgrade in consensus 07 EPS growth forecast to 20-25% by H2 from the current 10%. This should easily justify another 15% rise in H-share index by the end of the year from its current level. Key positives for the market include stronger-than-expected economic growth, margin expansion, new consumption policies, NPC approval of tax unification, A-share listing of H-shares, improved management incentives, and asset injections

Table of Contents
Macroeconomic outlook ................................................................... 3
2007 strategy...................................................................................... 5
Theme #1: Infrastructure spending................................................ 13
Theme #2: Universal health care .................................................... 19
Theme #3: Environment .................................................................. 27
Theme #4: Olympic Games............................................................. 31
Theme #5: Overseas investments .................................................. 36
Theme #6: Singapore-listed China discount stocks ..................... 39
Theme#7: A-share listings of H-shares .......................................... 44
Theme #8: B-share reform............................................................... 48
Appendix A: Company valuations of DB China universe ............. 51