Method: Least Squares

Date: 03/31/12   Time: 13:31

Sample (adjusted): 1994M12 2011M12

Included observations: 205 after adjustments

Convergence achieved after 75 iterations

Y=C(1)*Y(-1)+C(2)*Y(-2)+C(3)*Y(-11)+C(4)*X(-1)+(C(5)*Y(-1)+C(6)*Y(-2)

        +C(7)*Y(-11)+C(8)*X(-1))*(1+EXP(-C(9)*(X(-3)-C(10))))^-1

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.  

C(1)

1.128554

0.358271

3.150005

0.0019

C(2)

0.29989

0.388777

0.771367

0.4414

C(3)

-0.05779

0.132033

-0.43772

0.6621

C(4)

0.091535

0.074977

1.220833

0.2236

C(5)

0.024583

0.365596

0.067241

0.9465

C(6)

-0.62154

0.395992

-1.56958

0.1181

C(7)

0.112218

0.136886

0.819789

0.4133

C(8)

-0.13742

0.076908

-1.78679

0.0755

C(9)

14.23762

62.74534

0.226911

0.8207

C(10)

-3.67673

0.537143

-6.84497

0

R-squared

0.872359

    Mean dependent var

0.0586

Adjusted R-squared

0.866468

    S.D. dependent var

1.198359

S.E. of regression

0.437905

    Akaike info criterion

1.233921

Sum squared resid

37.39333

    Schwarz criterion

1.396019

Log likelihood

-116.477

    Hannan-Quinn criter.

1.299485

Durbin-Watson stat

1.819367