这里有些版主希望增加学术气氛，好吧，那我们看看外国的情况并讨论一下国内的社会保障制度

Pension reform

Second thoughts on the third age

Feb 17th 2005 From The Economist print edition

The World Bank reconsiders its pension strategy

AROUND the world, rich countries are reforming their pension systems in preparation for the ageing of their populations. Now it is America's turn, as George Bush plans to introduce individual accounts into Social Security, the state pension system. However, 60% of old people live in the developing world; by mid-century, 80% will. They, too, will want adequate and affordable incomes in old age. Their governments will also want to consider how, by changing the amounts and the ways people save, pension reform might affect economic development.

In 1994, the World Bank set out its thinking on pensions in developing countries in a landmark report. "Averting the Old Age Crisis" became the reference point for the Bank's approach-one given clout by its lending power. It advocated a move away from pay-as-you-go financing, under which contributions from workers pay for today's pensions. Pay-as-you-go has dominated pension provision in both rich and poor countries. The report backed, where possible, a much bigger role for compulsory funded pensions, paid for by workers saving part of their earnings in retirement accounts.

Since 1994, reforms along these lines have been carried out mainly in Latin America and in the post-Soviet "transition economies". Chile, in fact, had gone down this route as early as 1981. In all, 12 countries in Latin America have now passed laws introducing mandatory saving; ten have implemented them. In Europe and central Asia, 14 countries have decided to introduce individual accounts; ten have actually made the change.

Eleven years on, the Bank has taken stock, reviewing how reforms have worked and taking account of criticism and new ideas. The result is a new report, to be released on February 21st. "Old-Age Income Support in the 21st Century", a copy of which The Economist has seen, is intended to be the definitive guide to the Bank's current thinking. Although the authors insist that it does not herald a new policy approach, it certainly does alter the Bank's public position.

The new report says that the case for the Bank to support pension reform has grown stronger in the past decade. Existing systems are not good enough. "Most pension systems in the world," it argues, "do not deliver on their social objectives, they contribute to significant distortions in the operation of market economies, and they are not financially sustainable when faced with an ageing population."

If experience has reinforced the diagnosis, how has it affected the prescription? In Latin America, for example, reforms to expensive pay-as-you-go schemes have improved governments' long-term fiscal positions. The new funded individual accounts have been costly to run but have generally delivered impressive returns. Nevertheless the number of future pensioners who will benefit looks set to be disappointingly low, because many workers are not covered by the new arrangements.

The Bank has taken this lesson to heart. According to the report, pension reform must take account of workers in the informal economy, who often make up more than half the labour force in developing countries. And it must also cater for people who will be poor throughout their lives.

The Bank now calls for an "enhanced focus on basic income provision for all vulnerable elderly". Such payments, it says, should be financed by general tax revenues, not workers' contributions. They can take the form of social assistance, means-tested pensions or universal payments from the age of, say, 70. And the Bank now recognises the importance of other resources in old age, such as family help, housing and access to health care.

Pillars of society As a result, it has extended its "multi-pillar" pension model. In 1994, the Bank described its approach as having three pillars: a public unfunded system; privately managed mandatory saving accounts; and voluntary retirement saving. Now two more pillars have been added: the tax-financed safety-net and the other, mainly non-financial, means of support.

The evidence of the past decade has also led the Bank to temper its enthusiasm for mandatory individual accounts. One of the main hopes of "Averting the Old Age Crisis" was that these accounts would spur economic development. This does appear to have happened in Chile, where reform is estimated to have boosted the rate of economic growth modestly. However, in Argentina, the new accounts have proved vulnerable to political risk. Workers suffered big pension losses when the government defaulted on its debts.

The new report still favours mandatory accounts as a way of raising national saving, improving labour markets and spurring the development of financial systems. But it suggests that they should be considered as a benchmark, not as a blueprint. "Advance funding is still considered useful," the Bank says, "but the limits of funding in some circumstances are also seen much more sharply." If funding is to work, a country's macroeconomic and fiscal foundations must be secure. Regulatory and supervisory reforms are also vital.

Since "Averting the Old Age Crisis", there has been fresh thinking about reforming existing pension systems. Sweden pioneered the idea of "notional accounts". These maintain pay-as-you-go financing, but treat workers' contributions as if they were paid into individual accounts, which then form the basis of their pension benefits. Poland and Latvia have also adopted the system. At first, the Bank was sceptical about this idea. However, it has since recognised the potential of notional accounts, which establish a tight link between payroll contributions and eventual pension benefits. They are, says the report, a "promising approach to reform or to implement an unfunded first pillar".

The new report is overdue. After the 1994 report, the Bank became identified with a narrow focus on the three-pillar concept, and within that on the funded second pillar in particular. In fact, its lending policies have been more flexible: only 30% of its pension-related lending in the past two decades has been for reforms setting up a second pillar. The report therefore aligns the Bank's public position on pension reform with practice.