UBS 瑞银：2007中国地产行业展望

UBS Investment Research：China Property Sector Outlook 2007

34页 25 January 2007

英文 Global Fixed Income Research

 

Last year, key headwinds for the China property sector have been (1) regulatory risks, (2) negative rating headlines and (3) supply overhang. However, heading into 2007, we expect regulatory risks will subside, as the physical market is already responding to austerity measures introduced in mid-2006. Although new measures should continue to hit the market sporadically, their magnitude is unlikely to be as severe as was the case during 2006. Regarding ratings, credit metrics of China property issuers are mostly consistent with their current ratings.For those issuers who need to deleverage in order to maintain their current ratings, we note indications that rating agencies have allowed more time for such delivery. Lastly, although a potential supply overhang does exist, the overall market should remain largely demand-driven. At the same time, we believe the financial profiles of property debt issuers will be underpinned by (1) strong support from the equity market, and (2) slowing leveraging momentum on the back of decelerating land bank acquisition. In light of this generally constructive outlook, we maintain our overweight rating on the sector