BNP 百富勤：银行保险报告

BNP：China Financials

02.12 44页 英文

􀂄 Our earning projections for banks are above consensus after pricing in lower income tax and increased NIM in 2008.We reiterate our rotation call from life insurers to banks for lower valuations and more favourable margin outlook.We expect 29% EPS CAGR from 2006-08 for the banks

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‘A’ stock market rally alters industry landscape............................................................. 3
‘A’ share stock market rally and turn of retail investor sentiment to strengthen leading position of large
banks and insurers while weakening smaller players.
Margin trend to reverse.................................................................................................. 7
Shortened duration for retail deposits to lower banks’ cost of funding. Insurers passed return peak and
faces regulatory restriction to maximize underwriting gains.
Favour banks in near term, insurers in the longer term ............................................... 10
Expect upward revisions in consensus earning projections for banks. Insurers remain longer term
positive due to growth potential and favourable policy making movements.
Company pages........................................................................................................... 15

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