求助:
vecrank结果不存在协整关系,vec命令Johansen 显示95%置信下协整成立,如何理解呢?谢谢各位先!
上图:
. vecrank l3 l4,lag(1)
Johansen tests for cointegration
Trend: constant Number of obs = 243
Sample: 2 - 244 Lags = 1
5%
maximum trace critical
rank parms LL eigenvalue statistic value
0 2 1355.0908 . 9.2275* 15.41
1 5 1358.6394 0.02878 2.1303 3.76
2 6 1359.7045 0.00873
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. vec l3 l4,lag(1)
Vector error-correction model
Sample: 2 - 244 No. of obs = 243
AIC = -11.14106
Log likelihood = 1358.639 HQIC = -11.11211
Det(Sigma_ml) = 4.77e-08 SBIC = -11.06919
Equation Parms RMSE R-sq chi2 P>chi2
D_l3 2 .019359 0.0294 7.311296 0.0258
D_l4 2 .017387 0.0228 5.626694 0.0600
Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval]
D_l3
_ce1
L1. -.0722466 .0273642 -2.64 0.008 -.1258793 -.0186138
_cons .0001048 .001281 0.08 0.935 -.0024059 .0026155
D_l4
_ce1
L1. -.0557344 .0245767 -2.27 0.023 -.1039039 -.0075649
_cons -.0001358 .0011505 -0.12 0.906 -.0023908 .0021191
Cointegrating equations
Equation Parms chi2 P>chi2
_ce1 1 5.380401 0.0204
Identification: beta is exactly identified
Johansen normalization restriction imposed
beta Coef. Std. Err. z P>z [95% Conf. Interval]
_ce1
l3 1 . . . . .
l4 -.3608436 .1555649 -2.32 0.020 -.6657453 -.055942
_cons -1.984333 . . . . .