MS 摩根斯坦利：中美贸易问题政治化特别研究

MS：The Politicization of the US-China Trade Relationship

February 13, 2007 13页 英文

Washington is veering down a dangerous path in politicizing the US-China trade relationship. (1) An unprecedented saving shortfall leaves America biased toward massive trade deficits;the outsized bilateral imbalance with China is a painfully natural outgrowth of this saving deficiency. (2) A currency "fix" is not the answer for the US or China; it would not address America's saving deficiency or the excess US import problem that stems from asset-led consumption, and it could well destabilize China's still undeveloped financial system. (3) Unprecedented pressures on labor are playing an important role in shaping the anti-China political stance in Washington; in many respects, this reflects a US that is unprepared for the hyper-speed of an IT-enabled globalization in both tradable manufacturing and once nontradable services. (4) US politicians and policymakers are mistakenly treating China as a fully-functioning marketbased economy; yet a blended system of state and private ownership still leaves the Chinese economy very much in transition