UBS 瑞银：香港市场策略－资金外流，调整临近

UBS Investment Research：Hong Kong Market Strategy－Outflow has begun; correction is imminent

12 February 2007　　16页　　英文

Interestingly, the Hong Kong dollar spot rate began to weaken in early January and many were puzzled by the weakening in the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, as the Rmb is appreciating and the pace of appreciation is widely expected to accelerate in 2007. We believe Rmb and Hong Kong dollar movements have no correlation, despite Hong Kong’s reliance on China in terms of trade and other economic activities. The reason for the weakening in the Hong Kong dollar spot rate, we believe, is simply corporates and individuals that were liquid in the Hong Kong dollar switching into the US dollar for higher interest rates, and this move will put downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar spot exchange rate, but has no impact on the overall liquidity situation in Hong Kong.