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2012-05-18
新发行债券数量增多会导致spread下降?我认为供给增加->价格下降->spread增大才对。

http://online.vitalsource.com/books/9781256112631/page/94

Label: Important

"Two approaches are of particular interest—primary market analysis and spread analysis. Warren is worried that the primary market is about to enter a period where the supply of new issues will increase causing spreads to tighten, and furthermore, that most of the new issues will not be callable."
(Institute 95)
Institute, CFA. Level III 2012 Volume 4 Fixed Income and Equity Portfolio Management, 5th Edition. Pearson Learning Solutions. <vbk:9781256112631#page(95)>.

解释
"25. A is correct. Warren is most likely correct regarding the effect on spreads and the probability of the bonds being callable. During most years, increases in issuance are associated with market-spread contraction. Bullet structures without call, put, or sinking fund options have come to dominate the credit market."

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2012-5-18 03:58:34
应该是 供给增加->价格上升->spread下降

书上70页:
Prospective new supply induces many traders, analysts, and investors to advo- cate a defensive stance toward the overall corporate market as well as toward individual sectors and issuers. Yet the premise, “supply will hurt spreads,” which may apply to an individual issuer, does not generally hold up for the entire credit market. Credit spreads are determined by many factors; supply, although important, represents one of many determinants. During most years, increases in issuance (most notably during the first quarter of each year) are associated with market-spread contraction and strong relative returns for credit debt. In contrast, sharp supply declines are accompanied frequently by spread expansion and a major fall in both relative and absolute returns for credit securities.
(Level III 2012 Volume 4 Fixed Income and Equity Portfolio Management, 5th Edition. Pearson Learning Solutions p. 69).
<vbk:9781256112631#page(69)>
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2012-5-18 07:43:36
thanks, bridget.

it clarify this point.  so actually improving market conditions drive the supply.
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