用Eviews对一个时间序列gdp做了季节调整,生成gdpsa,然后对其进行单位根检验,在二阶差分时拒绝原假设是平稳序列。因此接下来就直接把gdpsa进行了二阶差分,生成gdpsa_diff_2,这个时候再对这个二阶差分做单位根检验应该在水平值就是平稳了吧,但是我做出来的结果是仍要继续做一个一阶差分才是平稳的……我不太明白这是为什么,请各位高人请多多指教哈,先谢过啦!
这是对gdpsa_diff_2水平值进行单位根检验的结果:
Null Hypothesis: GDPSA_DIFF_2 has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 6 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=10)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 1.725239 1.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -4.165756
5% level -3.508508
10% level -3.184230
这是对gdpsa_diff_2一阶差分进行单位根检验的结果:
Null Hypothesis: D(GDPSA_DIFF_2) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic based on AIC, MAXLAG=10)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.575605 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -4.161144
5% level -3.506374
10% level -3.183002

[em49]
[此贴子已经被作者于2007-3-4 11:24:41编辑过]