应该是后者。There are broadly three ways of measuring LGD for an instrument:
1. Market LGD: observed from market prices of defaulted bonds or marketable loans soon after
the actual default event
2. Workout LGD: The set of estimated cash flows resulting from the workout and/or collections
process, properly discounted, and the estimated exposure
3. Implied Market LGD: LGDs derived from risky (but not defaulted) bond prices using a
theoretical asset pricing model.

具体可参见http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/04/p0401.html。