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20120525 Follow Me 379 China Manufacturing Contraction May Speed Stimulus
shenxiaoqiang
2382 10
2012-05-24
China Manufacturing Contraction May Speed Stimulus
By Bloomberg News - May 24, 2012 3:12 PM GMT+0800

China’s manufacturing may shrink for a seventh month in May, a private survey showed, reinforcing the need for stimulus as Premier Wen Jiabao accelerates a shift in policy to support growth.
The 48.7 preliminary reading for a purchasing managers’index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today compares with a final 49.3 for April. If confirmed on June 1, it would mark the longest run of below-50 readings since the global financial crisis.
Today’s report, along with worse-than-forecast data from Japan and Taiwan yesterday, add to concerns that growth in Asia is in danger as the world grapples with the threat of Greece’s exit from the euro. China will increase the intensity of policy“fine-tuning” amid rising “downside risks” facing the economy, the State Council, or Cabinet, said yesterday.
“This calls for more aggressive policy easing, as inflation continues to slow,” Qu Hongbin, Hong Kong-based chief China economist for HSBC, said in a statement. “Beijing policy makers have been and will step up easing efforts to stabilize growth, as indicated by a slew of measures to boost liquidity, public housing and infrastructure investment and consumption.”
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks reversed gains, declining 0.5 percent as of 3:01 p.m. local time. The yuan weakened against the dollar for a second day, dropping 0.1 percent to 6.3403.
The manufacturing index stayed below 50 for eight months through March 2009. The new orders, export orders and employment components of the gauge all showed a contraction for May, while output expanded, according to the preliminary readings.

‘Proactively’ Expand Demand
The government “must proactively take policies and measures to expand demand and to create a favorable policy environment for stable and relatively fast economic growth,”according to a statement on its website yesterday summarizing a meeting of the State Council.
Leaders pledged to maintain a “prudent” monetary policy while also increasing the degree of “fine-tuning” as the Economy faces “increasing pressure of a downward movement,”according to the statement.
The comments build on Wen’s remarks published May 20 that policy makers should “put stabilizing growth in a more important position.”
The State Council meeting “confirms stimulus will come,”Zhang Zhiwei, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., said in a note yesterday. Implementation of policies will happen in June and will “secure growth” in the second half of the year, he said.



Deteriorating Growth
China’s economic growth will probably deteriorate this quarter and the odds are increasing that interest rates will be cut for the first time in more than three years, an Asian Development Bank senior economist said. Expansion may“approach” 7.5 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, following the first quarter’s 8.1 percent, Zhuang Jian said in an interview in Beijing yesterday.
China’s banks can borrow from one another at the lowest interest rates in 13 months as the economic slowdown stifles demand for loans, leaving lenders flush with cash. The three-month Shanghai interbank offered rate has fallen every day since March 27, sliding in that time to 4.33 percent yesterday from 4.95 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Today’s preliminary reading, called the Flash PMI, is based on 85 percent to 90 percent of responses to a survey of more than 420 companies, according to HSBC.



New Zealand Surplus
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, New Zealand’s government today projected a narrower budget surplus in 2015, the first in seven years, and indicated that a disorderly exit by Greece from the euro heightens the risk of achieving that goal.
Vietnam’s inflation in May eased to less than 10 percent for the first time in 19 months on declining bank lending and moderating food prices, a report today showed. The Bank of Japansaid in a monthly report that it’s “increasingly evident that Japan’s economy is shifting toward a pick-up phase, although its economic activity has remained more or less flat.”
In Europe, a report today may show German business confidence fell for the first time in seven months. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, will drop to 109.4 from 109.9 in April, according to the median forecast of 37 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
The U.S. Commerce Department may say today orders for durable goods rose 0.2 percent in April from the prior month, while a Labor Department report may say initial jobless claims for the week ended May 19 were unchanged at 370,000, Bloomberg surveys showed.

Infrastructure Projects
Chinese authorities “should speed up the implementation of key infrastructure projects” if growth keeps weakening in the second quarter, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in a semi-annual report on the global economy released this week.
The OECD said Europe’s debt crisis risks spiraling and seriously damaging the world economy. The group pared its 2012China growth forecast to 8.2 percent from 8.5 percent, joining financial institutions including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that cut estimates this month.
“As long as the easing measures filter through, China will secure a soft landing in the coming quarters,” HSBC’s Qu said.
China’s economy will expand 7.9 percent this quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey May 14-15. That would be the sixth quarterly deceleration after an 8.1 percent pace in the first three months of this year.
Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. swung to a loss in the first quarter and may be unprofitable in the first half because of weak prices and higher fuel costs, the nation’s biggest producer of the metal said in a Shanghai Stock Exchange filing last month.

More information:
http://www.economist.com/node/21555915
How strong is China’s economy?

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whachel1976
2012-5-25 06:11:57
It is said that the railway projects will be restarted.

按照国际上通用的做法，PMI由五个扩散指数即新订单指数(简称订单)、生产指数(简称生产)、从业人员指数(简称雇员)、供应商配送时间指数(简称配送)、主要原材料库存指数(简称存货)加权而成。制造业PMI指数在50%以上，反映制造业总体扩张；低于50%，通常反映制造业衰退。 　　
PMI指数计算公式如下：PMI=订单×30%+生产×25%+雇员×20%+配送×15%+存货×10%　　
专家表示，PMI计算出来之后，可以与上月进行比较。如果PMI大于50%，表示经济上升，反之则趋向下降。一般来说，汇总后的制造业综合指数高于50%，表示整个制造业经济在增长，低于50%表示制造业经济下降。
http://baike.baidu.com/view/1442197.htm
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whachel1976
2012-5-25 06:47:14

PwC positive about development in China




SHANGHAI - Dennis M. Nally, chairman of global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), said Friday that the firm will continue to expand its business in China, as it is positive about the country's economic outlook.

"We see two opportunities for PwC in China. One is to continue to help multinational companies to invest in China," the chairman said.

"Secondly, as Chinese companies continue to develop and they think about making investments in the other parts of the world, helping them to go into new markets and understand local customs, rules, regulations and getting their businesses set up there is another significant opportunity for us here," Nally said.

Nally said a recent survey conducted by the company shows that CEOs around the world continue to believe that China is the best market for investment.

"We can help these companies strategically with their investments here in China," he said.

China's 7.5-percent economic growth makes it the fastest-growing economy in the world, he said.

"But it's no longer as export-driven as it used to be," he noted.

PwC has a network of firms in 158 countries, with close to 169,000 people providing assurance, tax and advisory services. Over 12,000 are located in China, making PwC China the leading professional services firm in the country.

"Our challenge is to continue to develop a workplace environment that allows people to be successful, which is why creating a flexible working environment is critical," Nally added.


http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-05/19/content_15337671.htm


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whachel1976
2012-5-25 06:59:17

China pledges measures to boost demand and investment



China has said it will take measures to boost demand and investment amid fears of a slowdown in its economy.




On Wednesday, the government said it will encourage private investment in sectors such as energy, railways and telecommunications.
The move comes as its export sector, one of the biggest drivers of growth, has been hurt by falling global demand.
Policymakers have also found it tough to boost domestic consumption enough to offset a decline in foreign sales.
"Downward pressure on the economy is increasing," the government said in a statement issued after a cabinet meeting led by Premier Wen Jiabao.
It added: "We must proactively take policies and measures to expand demand and to create a favourable policy environment for stable and relatively fast economic growth."


Getting worried

China's growth has been slowing in recent times. Its economy expanded by an annual rate of 8.1% in the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost three years.

The government has set a target of 7.5% growth in 2012, the lowest since 2004. However, there have been fears that China's economy may witness a bigger-than-expected slowdown in the near term.
Those fears have been fanned further in recent days as the eurozone debt crisis has taken centre stage again after voters in Greece backed politicians who have voiced their opposition to state spending cuts.
There are concerns that as the debt crisis escalates, it may dent consumer sentiment in the region and further hurt demand for China's exports.
"China seems concerned enough about its own growth slowdown and downside risks coming from the European crisis that it will do more to stimulate its economy, even pre-emptively," said Dariusz Kowalczyk of Credit Agricole CIB.
Policy easing?
Triggered by fears of a slowdown in the economy, China has been easing its policies in a bid to sustain growth.
China's central bank has cut the reserve ratio requirement, the amount of money that banks need to hold in reserves, three times in the past six months.
The cuts give more money to banks to lend in the hope that increased lending will result in higher spending and boost domestic demand.
Mr Kowalczyk said that the government's latest statement indicated that it will ease its policies "via pressuring banks to lend more".
He added that the central bank may further reduce the reserve requirements for banks in the coming months as well as cut interest rates.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18185681






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danellv
2012-5-25 09:40:43
I don't think China will cut the interest rate in the near future. The number of new loans in the first 20 days of May is 34 billion yuan. For the financial lease industry, the cost is still between 12-14%. Banks are now preparing to do the loan securitization to release the risk capital. When the number of manufacturing contracts soars, we need more polity support but not just via financial methods.
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h4wang
2012-5-25 10:54:39
The adjustment of economic structure.Manufacturing industry needs transition, it is more competitive.
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