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2621 11
2012-06-06
Tall Tales About China’s Banks Hide Economy’s Problems
As China’s growth slows, its banking system is coming under greater scrutiny. The general perception outside the country is that negative real interest rates are causing financial instability, repressing consumption and encouraging excessive investment in capital-intensive industries.

Amplifying this perception was Premier Wen Jiabao’s much- publicized recent statement that the big four state commercial banks -- Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. -- have a monopoly position and earn excessive profits while neglecting small private companies and catering to the interests of large state enterprises.
Although this storyline has a degree of validity, some aspects of it are more myth than reality. Those myths risk diverting attention from the real nature of the banking system’s problems.

MYTH: Negative real interest rates are a problem specific to China.
REALITY: These days, negative real interest rates are a global norm. Real interest rates for savers are more negative in the U.S. (-2 percent) than they are in China (-0.5 percent) given recent inflation and benchmark one-year deposit rates.
What makes China’s form of financial repression unique is not negative real interest rates per se but the restricted investment choices -- reinforced by capital controls -- for household savings. The authorities strictly limit how much cash individuals can take out, review the purpose and origins of bank transfers and regulate investment options. As a result, government can more easily capture household savings for its own spending.

MYTH: Negative real interest rates explain low consumption in China.
REALITY: Such rates are a relatively minor factor in explaining the 15 percentage point decline in the share of consumption to GDP in China over the past two decades. Most of this decline is due to the industrialization process as workers move from agriculture to industry. In the process, household income typically declines relative to GDP, causing the share of consumption to fall.
The same phenomenon occurred in other rapidly industrializing economies including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and even the U.S. a century ago. In these countries, consumption as a share of GDP fell by 20 to 40 percentage points over several decades.
Household consumption in China has notably grown by more than 8 percent annually over the past two decades. This is higher than any other major economy. The goal is to maximize sustainable growth in consumption over time and not its share of gross domestic product. The concern that consumption has been repressed is thus misplaced.

MYTH: China’s big four state commercial banks enjoy a monopoly position and earn excessive profits.
REALITY: The four banks now command about 45 percent of banking assets, but this compares with 75 percent two decades ago. And while reporting high profits, these banks will inevitably be forced to take major write-offs by the defaults from the 2008 stimulus program.
So the big four neither enjoy more of a monopoly position nor earn excessive profits. The real problem is the limited presence of other financial intermediaries and the rudimentary nature of bond and equity markets, both of which poorly serve the needs of small private companies and local governments.

MYTH: China’s low interest rates encourage excessive investment in capital-intensive industries.
REALITY: Given China’s unusually high savings rate of about 50 percent of GDP, interest rates might actually fall in a fully liberalized financial system. Regardless, the government’s intentions, and not low interest rates, drive the investment pattern in China.
In an economy of China’s size and diversity, the industrial structure would normally span the full range of light to heavy industries. The buildup in heavy industries has been triggered not by low interest rates but by an overly ambitious effort to rapidly rebuild its depleted capital stock in the post-Mao period.
Despite high investment rates, China’s capital stock in relation to the size of its economy has been below average for middle-income East Asian countries. Together with the strategic push for rapid urbanization, this has driven growth in steel, cement and heavy construction machinery.

MYTH: Reforms will allow the banking sector to play a more prominent role in the economy.
REALITY: Bank deposits as a share of GDP are abnormally large in China because the government has been using credit expansion to drive demand and households have limited investment options. In a reformed world, the banking footprint will shrink and other financial services will increase to serve more diversified interests.

MYTH: Reforming the banking system means improving its governance and regulatory framework.
REALITY: This thinking misses the point. Weaknesses in the banking system -- as serious as they may be -- are less important than the inadequacies of the fiscal system in serving the needs of a state-driven economy. Government expenditures account for only 27 percent of GDP in China compared with about 35 percent in other middle-income economies and more than 40 percent in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries.
When reforms began decades ago, government revenue and the profits of state enterprises had collapsed and the only feasible option to secure resources for investment was to tap household savings deposits. With an increasingly sophisticated economy, China’s leadership needs to move away from having banks as the main instrument for funding public expenditures.
Thus the key to reforming the financial sector begins by getting the fiscal system to take on the responsibilities it should normally have. This would encourage more accountable and transparent practices, and reduce the likelihood of waste and corruption.
(Yukon Huang is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment and a former World Bank country director for China. The opinions expressed are his own.)


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2012-6-7 06:40:49
It really takes me some time to read this article.
The author means more financial markets and instruments should be developed, not on the reform of the state banks alone. And the latter won't be so helpful as expected.
From the perspective of a citizen, although the state banks are monopolic, they are safe for ordinary people. Generally speaking, one's deposits are almost sure to be there, not to take the risk of bankruptcy of the depository. On the other hand, the strictly controlled(controled) system seems not so fair in market economy and private capitals have to work in shadow banks out of the governments' control.
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2012-6-7 10:11:15
The  author told some truth about China's economy. I recommend this  article!  As the students whose major is economy , we should analyze the fact with the  ture figures and economic theories , not the journalist news,  to some degree, they are  trained for how to describe the story. To attract the eyes, not to tell the truth behind the story
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2012-6-7 17:54:42
This is a good article! And the author has good status and knows these things about China well. Reform needs courage and time, but financial security is really a big problem especially when exposed to the outside world. Negative real interest rate is always annoying me, and I once hoped for an independent central bank, but even US did not act against inflation that much. Besides, ECB might also give up inflation targeting one day due to the debt crisis.
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2012-6-7 18:53:53

中国银监会关于鼓励和引导民间资本进入银行业的实施意见

银监发〔2012〕27号

为贯彻落实《国务院关于鼓励和引导民间投资健康发展的若干意见》(国发〔2010〕13号),鼓励和引导民间资本进入银行业,加强对民间投资的融资支持,依据《银行业监督管理法》、《商业银行法》等法律法规和国家政策,制定本实施意见。

一、支持民间资本与其他资本按同等条件进入银行业

(一)支持符合银行业行政许可规章相关规定,公司治理结构完善,社会声誉、诚信记录和纳税记录良好,经营管理能力和资金实力较强,财务状况、资产状况良好,入股资金来源真实合法的民营企业投资银行业金融机构。

民营企业可通过发起设立、认购新股、受让股权、并购重组等多种方式投资银行业金融机构。

(二)支持民营企业参与商业银行增资扩股,鼓励和引导民间资本参与城市商业银行重组。民营企业参与城市商业银行风险处置的,持股比例可以适当放宽至20%以上。

(三)支持民营企业,特别是符合条件的农业产业化龙头企业和农民专业合作社等涉农企业参与农村信用社股份制改革或参与农村商业银行增资扩股。

进一步加大引导和扶持力度,鼓励民间资本参与农村金融机构重组改造。通过并购重组方式参与农村信用社和农村商业银行风险处置的,允许单个企业及其关联方阶段性持股比例超过20%。

(四)支持民营企业参与村镇银行发起设立或增资扩股。村镇银行主发起行的最低持股比例由20%降低为15%。

村镇银行的主发起行应当向村镇银行提供成熟的风险管理理念、管理机制和技术手段,建立风险为本的企业文化,促进村镇银行审慎稳健经营。

村镇银行进入可持续发展阶段后,主发起行可以与其他股东按照有利于拓展特色金融服务、有利于防范金融风险、有利于完善公司治理的原则调整各自的持股比例。

(五)支持农民、农村小企业作为农村资金互助社社员,发起设立或者参与农村资金互助社增资扩股。

(六)支持民营企业投资信托公司、消费金融公司。

支持符合国家产业政策并拥有核心主业的民营企业集团,申请设立企业集团财务公司。

支持主营业务适合融资租赁交易产品的大型民营企业以及民营租赁公司,作为金融租赁公司主要出资人,投资金融租赁公司。

支持生产或销售汽车整车的民营企业作为汽车金融公司的主要出资人,投资汽车金融公司。

(七)允许小额贷款公司按规定改制设立为村镇银行。

二、为民间资本进入银行业创造良好环境

(八)各级银行业监督管理机构要充分认识鼓励和引导民间资本进入银行业对加快多层次银行业市场体系建设、建立公平竞争的银行业市场环境以及我国银行业金融机构自身可持续发展的重要意义,在促进银行业金融机构股权结构多元化、平等保护各类出资人的合法权益、有利于改进银行业金融机构公司治理和内部控制的基础上,采取切实措施,积极支持民间资本进入银行业。

(九)各级银行业监督管理机构要鼓励各类投资者平等竞争,根据银行业行政许可规章确定的条件和程序,实施市场准入行政许可。在市场准入实际工作中,不得单独针对民间资本进入银行业设置限制条件或其他附加条件。

(十)各级银行业监督管理机构要及时公布有关投资银行业金融机构的法规、政策和程序,以及银行业市场准入行政许可事项、结果,畅通审批渠道,公开审批流程,不断提高银行业市场准入的透明度。

(十一)各级银行业监督管理机构要进一步加强对民间资本进入银行业的服务、指导,依法答复相关法规和政策咨询。

(十二)各级银行业监督管理机构要严格依法履行监管职责,接受社会公众通过申请政府信息公开、行政复议、行政诉讼等方式对银行业市场准入工作进行的监督。

(十三)各银行业金融机构应当认真对待各类投资者的投资需求,在增资扩股、股权改造、并购重组等过程中为民间资本投资入股创造公平竞争条件。

三、促进民间资本投资的银行业金融机构稳健经营

(十四)民间资本进入银行业应当与其他各类资本同等遵守法律、行政法规和规章有关投资银行业金融机构的持股比例、投资机构数量等审慎规定。

(十五)各级银行业监督管理机构审核银行业金融机构投资入股许可申请,要审慎考虑投资者对拟投资银行业金融机构稳健经营可能产生的影响,避免公司治理结构存在明显缺陷,关联关系复杂、关联交易频繁且异常,核心主业不突出,现金流量受经济景气影响较大,资产负债率、财务杠杆率畸高的企业投资银行业金融机构。

(十六)各银行业金融机构应当遵守《商业银行与内部人和股东关联交易管理办法》等相关规定,规范关联交易行为,控制关联交易风险。对导致银行业金融机构违反审慎经营规则的股东(社员),银行业监督管理机构可以依照《银行业监督管理法》的规定,采取相应的监管措施。

对于已经或者可能发生信用危机,严重影响存款人或其他客户合法权益,或者有违法经营、经营管理不善而可能严重危害金融秩序、损害公众利益等情形的银行业金融机构,银行业监督管理机构应当依法及时采取相应的风险处置措施。

四、加大对民间投资的融资支持力度

(十七)各银行业金融机构要充分认识非公有制经济发展对我国经济战略转型、促进就业和经济长期平稳较快发展的重要意义,深入落实提升小型微型企业金融服务相关法规和政策,合理配置信贷资源,创新和灵活运用多种金融工具,加大对民间投资的融资支持。

(十八)鼓励银行业金融机构根据民间投资特点,积极开展融资模式、服务手段和产品创新,提供多层次金融服务,支持民营企业发展,重点满足符合国家产业和环保政策、有利于扩大就业、有偿还意愿和偿还能力、具有商业可持续性的小型微型企业的融资需求。

(十九)引导银行业金融机构建立小型微型企业金融服务长效机制,贯彻落实小型微型企业金融服务“六项机制”,进一步改进小型微型企业贷款工作流程,使相关机制真正有效发挥作用,实现小型微型企业金融业务可持续发展。

(二十)支持商业银行进一步加强小型微型企业专营管理建设,按照“四单原则”(单列信贷计划、单独配置人力和财务资源、单独客户评定与信贷评审、单独会计核算)加大专营机构管理和资源配置力度,继续支持商业银行新设或改造部分分支行作为小型微型企业金融服务专业分支行或者特色分支行,充分发挥专业化经营优势。

(二十一)鼓励银行业金融机构积极开展小型微型企业信贷产品创新,根据小型微型企业的发展特点和实际需求,提供循环贷款、应收账款保理、同业互保、联保贷款等多元化的特色金融产品。

鼓励银行业金融机构根据小型微型企业信用状况和资产状况,灵活采用保证、抵押、质押等担保方式或组合担保方式,积极探索动产抵押、股权质押、专利权质押、林权抵押、税款返还担保、保单质押、仓单质押、应收账款质押等多种融资担保方式。

(二十二)各银行业金融机构要进一步完善小型微型企业贷款的激励约束机制,加快建立单独的小型微型企业贷款风险分类、损失拨备和快速核销制度,认真落实小型微型信贷工作尽责制、不良贷款问责制和免责制,突出对信贷业务人员的正向激励,充分调动其开展小型微型企业金融服务的工作积极性。

(二十三)引导银行业金融机构对小型微型企业减费让利,具体落实优惠服务原则。禁止银行业金融机构在发放贷款时附加不合理的贷款条件,包括违法违规收取、变相收取承诺费、资金管理费,搭售保险、基金等产品。严格限制对小型微型企业收取财务顾问费、咨询费等费用。

(二十四)引导银行业金融机构加强与融资性担保机构的互利合作,推动小型微型企业信用体系建设,改善民营企业特别是民营小型微型企业融资环境。

(二十五)鼓励和引导银行业金融机构在金融服务不足的农村地区增设营业网点,支持银行业金融机构优化现有农村地区网点布局,将在当地所吸收的可贷资金主要用于当地发放贷款,不断加大“三农”服务力度。

(二十六)各级银行业监督管理机构要认真落实相关监管优惠政策,积极引导银行业金融机构提升小型微型企业金融服务水平。要制定具体措施提高行政审批效率,优先办理小型微型企业金融服务市场准入事项,优先支持小型微型企业金融服务良好的银行业金融机构增设分支机构、发行小型微型企业贷款专项金融债。要认真按照有关规定,对符合条件的银行业金融机构的资本充足率和存贷比两项监管指标作差异化考核。要适当放宽对小型微型企业贷款不良率的容忍度,对小型微型企业贷款不良率执行差异化的考核标准。





二○一二年五月二十六日













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2012-6-7 21:52:03
this a really a good article that I've learned much from it. for the time limits I can only type these words. thx for sharing .
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