巴克莱资本-石油商品分析 42页

PETROLEUM POLITICS AND ECONOMICS

31 May 2012

Testing $100: Spain puts oil in a spin

The resurgence of sovereign debt fears have continued to pull dollar oil prices lower, with those fears being added to by Spain. The physical market remains strong with good demand and Brent time premia still positive, while flat prices are enmeshed with debt fears.

Without the onset of a serious economic discontinuity, we believe prices have now pushed towards the bottom of a sustainable range.

Crude, gasoline and distillate inventories have all failed to make their seasonal turns again, leading to a mounting surplus of crude and mounting deficits of gasoline and distillates. Gasoline demand has continued its renaissance, showing a 0.7% increase for May-to-date.