巴克莱资本-全球电信产业分析 38页

29 May 2012

GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS

The pursuit of growth – Let’s keep it real

Telecommunications_The_pursuit_of_growth.pdf
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Telcos typically trade at a meaningful discount to other sectors, as their defensive qualities are being sorely tested. Telcos with any growth command a premium valuation. However, our research indicates inflation is a leveler, and that “real” growth is negative for most stocks in our global coverage universe. Of the key markets, the US and Asia offer higher real growth and so support higher valuations, in our view. However, in Europe there are examples of positive pricing power or secular growth that warrant a material valuation premium, such as European Cable, Datacentres and UK fixed line.

Conclusion 1: Inflation is a growth leveler – EMEA growth comparable with Europe.

Conclusion 2: Asia and US offer best “real growth” opportunities – and are priced for it.

Conclusion 3: No substitute for secular growth, albeit at premium valuation.