巴克莱资本-中国及香港消费零售产业分析 44页   June 2012

China_And_Hong_Kong_Retailers_SSS_bottoming_out_time_to_accumulate_retailers_wit.pdf
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CHINAAND HONG KONG RETAILERS

SSSbottoming out; time to accumulate retailers with pricing power or property

INVESTMENT SUMMARY: TIME TOACCUMULATE.....................................................................3

CHINA RETAILTRENDS.................................................................................................................7

Weaker SSS continuing in2Q.........................................................................................................7

Inventory levels arerising...............................................................................................................7

Margins are the majoroverhang for 2012.......................................................................................9

Well-placedcompanies..................................................................................................................10

Macro condition suggests2H betteroutlook...................................................................................13

HONG KONG RETAILTRENDS....................................................................................................14

April Hong Kong retailsales growth slowed on weaker sales as well as a base effect ..................14

Hong Kong sales growthmomentum may hold up slightly better than China in 2012;

the rest ofyear should see strongergrowth than April....................................................................16

VALUATION: TIME TOACCUMULATE..........................................................................................17

BELLE (1-OW; PT: HK$17.40,+38%) NEAR-TERM MARGIN PRESSURE BUT PLENTY

OFDRIVERS LONG-TERM...........................................................................................................20

GOLDEN EAGLE (1-OW; PT:HK$22.00; +36%): SSS ON TRACK TO REACH MID-TEENS INFY12..........................................................................................................................................22

LIFESTYLE (1-OW; HK$21.90;+31%): UPGRADED TO 1-OVERWEIGHT ...................................24

NEW WORLD DEPARTMENT STORE(2-EW; PT HK$5.30; +26%): TEENS SSS ON STOREREBRANDING...................................................................................................................28

PARKSON (1-OW; PT HK$12.6;+59%): LOWER EARNINGS IN 1Q, MORE CATALYST IN 2H ...30

SA SA (0178.HK; 1-OW;HK$5.20; +24%): REITERATE 1-OVERWEIGHT ....................................32