IMF:人民币升值有助全球经济增长 (English)

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The global economic recovery continues to strengthen, the International Monetary Fund said, but growth in the U.S. and wealthier nations in Europe may depend on a depreciation of their currencies compared to China and other developing countries.

国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund，简称IMF)称，全球经济复苏之势在继续加强，但美国和欧洲富裕国家的复苏前景，或将取决于本币是否相对中国等发展中国家的货币贬值。

As wealthy nations rein in stimulus spending, consumer demand and exports may be weak, said the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard. 'So this implies in general, an appreciation of emerging market currencies relative to advanced countries' currencies.'

IMF首席经济学家布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)认为，随着发达国家减少刺激性支出，其消费需求和出口可能会陷入疲软，这意味着要让新兴市场货币从总体上相对于发达国家货币升值。

Mr. Blanchard had China specifically in mind. In its semi-annual World Economic Outlook, released Wednesday, the IMF repeated that the Chinese yuan is 'substantially' undervalued.

布兰查德专门提到了中国。IMF周三发布的半年度《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook) 报告再一次说，人民币处于被“大幅”低估的状态。

Mr. Blanchard said that allowing the yuan to strengthen would help Beijing shift to more domestic-led growth and reduce the chances that the economy would overheat. 'An appreciation of the currency, appears highly desirable on its own,' he said.

布兰查德认为，允许人民币升值将有助于中国向更加倚重于国内的经济增长方式转变，并降低经济过热的风险。他说，以中国自身利益来看，人民币升值显得十分可取。

The IMF, U.S. and European nations have long been pressing China to revalue its currency, and Beijing has long resisted the move. But in recent weeks, the U.S. and China have given signals that a small revaluation may be in the works.

长期以来，IMF和欧美各国一直在敦促中国重估人民币，中国一直予以抵制。但从最近几个星期美国和中国传递出的信号来看，人民币可能即将进行一次小幅升值。

Overall, the IMF lifted its forecasts of global growth to 4.2% in 2010, up from the 3.9% projection given in January.
IMF
对2010年世界经济整体增长率的预测，从1月份的3.9%调高到了4.2%。

In 2011, the IMF expects growth of 4.3% -- a bit slower than average global growth before the financial crisis hit hard in 2007. But the speed of the recovery varies greatly by region.
IMF
对2011年增长率的预测是4.3%，略低于2007年金融危机袭来之前的全球平均增长水平。但各个地区的复苏速度存在很大差异。

The fund expects developing countries to grow at a 6.3% pace this year and 6.5% next year. As usual, the star performers are expected to be China with growth of 10% this year and 9.9% in 2011, and India, with an 8.8% growth rate projected in 2010, followed by 8.4% next year.

IMF预计，今年、明年发展中国家将分别实现6.3%和6.5%的增长。按其预测，表现最好的仍将是中国和印度：中国在今年增长10%，2011年增长9.9%；印度2010年增长8.8%，明年增长8.4%。

That's a far more rapid clip than what the IMF terms 'advanced economies' -- essentially the U.S., Europe and Japan -- which are projected to grow 2.3% in 2010 and 2.4% next year. In that group, the U.S. is expected to grow 3.1% in 2010 and 2.6% next year, while the 16 euro-zone nations are expected to struggle along at a 1% clip this year and 1.5% next year.

这个速度要远远高于IMF所称的“发达经济体”的增速。发达经济体实际上就是美国、欧洲和日本，预计这些国家今明两年的增速将分别为2.3%和2.4%。在发达经济体中，预计美国今明两年将分别增长3.1%和2.6%，而欧元区16国将增长缓慢，今明两年的增速分别为1%和1.5%。

Japan is expected to grow 1.9% this year and 2% in 2011, the IMF said.

IMF说，预计日本今明两年将分别增长1.9%和2%。

Greece's financial woes could dampen the outlook for Europe in particular, the IMF said. 'In the near term, a risk is that, if unchecked, market concerns about sovereign liquidity and solvency in Greece could turn into a full-blown and contagious sovereign debt crisis,' the IMF said.

IMF说，希腊的财务问题可能尤其会令欧洲的前景变得不乐观。IMF说，短期来看，有个风险是，如果市场对希腊主权流动性和偿债能力的担忧没有被控制住的话，可能会变成全面的、传染性的主权债务危机。

The fragility of the recovery in most advanced economies suggests that they should continue with already-planned fiscal stimulus measures this year. By next year, the IMF expects recoveries to become self-sustaining, allowing many countries to begin 'significant' reduction in deficits, even as monetary policy remains easy.

大部分发达经济体的复苏都很脆弱，这显示出它们今年应该继续实施已经计划好的财政刺激措施。IMF预计，明年之前复苏将能独立维持，这会让很多国家可以在货币政策依然保持宽松之际，开始大幅减少赤字。

The IMF didn't give specific advice about which countries should reduce fiscal stimulus next year -- or how deeply.

IMF没有就哪些国家明年应该减少财政刺激提供具体的忠告，也没有说减少的幅度应该多大。

But the IMF is clearly worried about rising debt levels choking off recoveries by boosting interest rates for governments, banks and other commercial borrowers.

不过，IMF显然担心不断上升的债务水平会提高ZF、银行和其他商业借款人的利率，进而遏制复苏。

The fund projects debt levels in advanced economies to top 100% of gross domestic product in 2014 based on current policies, up 35 percentage points from before the crisis. Bringing that back down below 60% of GDP by 2030 would require budget cuts of eight percentage points of GDP by 2020, and maintaining that level for the next decade.

IMF预计，如果继续实施现行政策，2014年发达经济体的债务水平将达到国内生产总值(GDP)的100%，较危机前高出35个百分点。在2030年前将债务水平降到GDP的60%以下，这需要这些国家在2020年前将预算占GDP的比例降低八个百分点，并在接下来的10年中保持这一水平。

Withdrawing stimulus, would only accomplish a spending reduction of 1.5 percentage points of GDP, the fund said. Thus, more drastic fiscal measures are needed, from cutting discretionary spending and broadening the tax base to tackling longer-term entitlement costs, the IMF said.

IMF说，退出刺激措施只会令支出占GDP的比例减少1.5个百分点。IMF说，这样就需要采取更大力度的财政措施，从减少不必要支出和扩大税收基础，到应对更长期权益成本。

The article was taken from 文国网.