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2012-06-24
真正的好金融绝不仅仅是管理风险,还必须是社会资产的看守者和社会价值的支持者。新一代从业者不仅将获得报酬,还将获得最真实的奖赏——来自金融民主化的进步(亦即给最需要的人带去金融服务)所带来的满足感

每年的这个时候是美国和其他国家的毕业季,即将离校的毕业生经常会在取得学位前听到最后的讲话和建议。对那些有志于在金融界(以及相关的保险、会计、审计、法律和公司管理界)打拼的同学,我有一些建议:

  你们都是幸运儿,即将离开学术界,前往自己所选择的金融业打拼。华尔街和其他金融机构正等着你们大展宏图。你们在金融理论、经济学、数学和统计学方面所受的训练将让你们如虎添翼。但你们在历史、哲学和文学方面的造诣同样重要,因为你不仅必须拥有正确的工具,同时也不能忘记,金融业所追求的最高目标是社会效益。

  如果你没有受过最基础的金融学训练,你也知道,金融部门正在遭受口诛笔伐——从相当程度上说罪有应得——因为它将世界拖入了自大萧条以来最严重的危机中。只消打量一下你周围参加过席卷全球的“占领”的同班同学,你就能感到普遍存在的对金融家和收入最高的1%人群的不满,而事实上,这个群体正是他们所拼命迎合(而且通常正是他们身之所属)的。

  这些批评中有不乏言辞过激和无的放矢者,但确实击中了金融制度和行为需要改革的核心。金融一直是市场民主国家繁荣的核心动力,这也是当前金融业问题必须解决的原因所在。你们对于我们的互相联系和多元化的需求早已有了充分的认识,能够完成金融业的改革。是十四行,这正是你们所面临的职业挑战,你们应该将这视为一次良机。

  金融业年轻才俊需要熟悉银行史,明白银行业只有在为不断扩张的社会服务时才能繁荣。在这方面,19世纪英国和欧洲的储蓄银行运动以及20世纪以孟加拉国格莱珉银行为先驱的微金融运动树立了榜样。如今,最正确的前进方向是升级金融和通信技术,为下等中产阶级和穷人提供全面、新颖的银行服务。

  选择按揭银行业务的毕业生将面临不同但同样关键的挑战:设计新的、更有弹性的贷款,以更好地帮助业主抵御眼下将千百万人拖入债务深渊的经济波动。

  投资银行年轻才俊将面临千载难逢的良机,设计出更具参与性的风险资本形式——比如新出现的大众集资网站——以刺激创新性小企业的成长。与此同时,进入保险业的同学们也不会错过机会的青睐,你们可以设计为芸芸众生规避风险的新方法,这绝不是一件小事——事关他们的工作、生活和住房价值。

  除了投资银行和券商之外,现代金融还有公共和ZF部门的维度,最近的金融危机明确地显示,这一维度也需要推倒重建。设计游戏规则,打造稳健的、对社会有用的金融部门从来都是第一等大事。立法和行政管理机构需要新鲜血液分析金融基础设施和新的监管方法,以求社会效益最大化。

  新一代政治领导人需要理解金融文化的重要性,能够找出为需要的公民提供法律和财务建议的办法。与此同时,经济决策面临设计新金融制度(如基于代际风险共担的退休金制度和公共福利制度)的重大挑战。

  如果你们有志于在经济和金融学术界发展,那么你们需要提出对资产泡沫的更好的理解,以及更好地将你的理解与金融学界同行和普罗大众交流。在此次危机中,华尔街的影响不可谓不大,危机之滥觞便是房价永不下跌这一广为流传的信条,在这一信条的助推下,社会染上了愈演愈烈的传染病。研究如何识别这些泡沫并在蔓延到整个经济之前处理掉它们将是新一代金融学者的主要挑战。

  你们已经掌握了从资产定价模型到复杂期权定价公式的成熟金融思想,一定非常想在金融界闯出一番成就,这再正常不过了,没有什么好扭扭捏捏的,而你们在金融界的成就很大程度上将体现于你们为雇主创造利润的效率。但是,可能大家没有注意到,华尔街(或者更一般地说,整个金融界)对成功的奖赏正在发生变化,这亦是理所当然,正如金融的定义必须做出改变,如果金融界想赢回崇高的社会地位以及公民和领导人的信任的话。

  真正的好金融绝不仅仅是管理风险,还必须是社会资产的看守者和社会价值的支持者。新一代从业者不仅将获得报酬,还将获得最真实的奖赏——来自金融民主化的进步(亦即给最需要的人带去金融服务)所带来的满足感。这是新一代所面临的新挑战,需要你们充分开动想象力和所学技能。

  祝你们在改造金融业的过程中好运。世界需要你们的成功。

  罗伯特•希勒是耶鲁大学经济学和金融学教授,其新著为《金融和良好社会》。

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2012-6-24 21:08:55
Finance, at its best, does not merely manage risk, but also acts as the steward of society’s assets and an advocate of its deepest goals.
By Robert J. Shiller
NEW HAVEN – At this time of year, at graduation ceremonies in America and elsewhere, those about to leave university often hear some final words of advice before receiving their diplomas. To those interested in pursuing careers in finance – or related careers in insurance, accounting, auditing, law, or corporate management – I submit the following address:
Best of luck to you as you leave the academy for your chosen professions in finance. Over the course of your careers, Wall Street and its kindred institutions will need you. Your training in financial theory, economics, mathematics, and statistics will serve you well. But your lessons in history, philosophy, and literature will be just as important, because it is vital not only that you have the right tools, but also that you never lose sight of the purposes and overriding social goals of finance.
Unless you have been studying at the bottom of the ocean, you know that the financial sector has come under severe criticism – much of it justified – for thrusting the world economy into its worst crisis since the Great Depression. And you need only check in with some of your classmates who have populated the Occupy movements around the world to sense the widespread resentment of financiers and the top 1% of income earners to whom they largely cater (and often belong).
While some of this criticism may be over-stated or misplaced, it nonetheless underscores the need to reform financial institutions and practices. Finance has long been central to thriving market democracies, which is why its current problems need to be addressed. With your improved sense of our interconnectedness and diverse needs, you can do that. Indeed, it is the real professional challenge ahead of you, and you should embrace it as an opportunity.
Young finance professionals need to familiarize themselves with the history of banking, and recognize that it is at its best when it serves ever-broadening spheres of society. Here, the savings-bank movement in the United Kingdom and Europe in the nineteenth century, and the microfinance movement pioneered by the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh in the twentieth century, comes to mind. Today, the best way forward is to update financial and communications technology to offer a full array of enlightened banking services to the lower middle class and the poor.
Graduates going into mortgage banking are faced with a different, but equally vital, challenge: to design new, more flexible loans that will better help homeowners to weather the kind of economic turbulence that has buried millions of people today in debt.
Young investment bankers, for their part, have a great opportunity to devise more participatory forms of venture capital – embodied in the new crowd-funding Web sites – to spur the growth of innovative new small businesses. Meanwhile, opportunities will abound for rookie insurance professionals to devise new ways to hedge risks that real people worry about, and that really matter – those involving their jobs, livelihoods, and home values.
Beyond investment banks and brokerage houses, modern finance has a public and governmental dimension, which clearly needs reinventing in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Setting the rules of the game for a robust, socially useful financial sector has never been more important. Recent graduates are needed in legislative and administrative agencies to analyze the legal infrastructure of finance, and regulate it so that it produces the greatest results for society.
A new generation of political leaders needs to understand the importance of financial literacy and find ways to supply citizens with the legal and financial advice that they need. Meanwhile, economic policymakers face the great challenge of designing new financial institutions, such as pension systems and public entitlements based on the solid grounding of intergenerational risk-sharing.
Those of you deciding to pursue careers as economists and finance scholars need to develop a better understanding of asset bubbles – and better ways to communicate this understanding to the finance profession and to the public. As much as Wall Street had a hand in the current crisis, it began as a broadly held belief that housing prices could not fall – a belief that fueled a full-blown social contagion. Learning how to spot such bubbles and deal with them before they infect entire economies will be a major challenge for the next generation of finance scholars.
Equipped with sophisticated financial ideas ranging from the capital asset pricing model to intricate options-pricing formulas, you are certainly and justifiably interested in building materially rewarding careers. There is no shame in this, and your financial success will reflect to a large degree your effectiveness in producing strong results for the firms that employ you. But, however imperceptibly, the rewards for success on Wall Street, and in finance more generally, are changing, just as the definition of finance must change if is to reclaim its stature in society and the trust of citizens and leaders.
Finance, at its best, does not merely manage risk, but also acts as the steward of society’s assets and an advocate of its deepest goals. Beyond compensation, the next generation of finance professionals will be paid its truest rewards in the satisfaction that comes with the gains made in democratizing finance – extending its benefits into corners of society where they are most needed. This is a new challenge for a new generation, and will require all of the imagination and skill that you can bring to bear.
Good luck in reinventing finance. The world needs you to succeed.
Robert J. Shiller is Professor of Economics and Finance at Yale University. His new book is Finance and the Good Society.
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2012-6-24 22:06:38
金融还是要为实体经济服务 皮之不存,毛将焉附
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2012-6-24 23:17:20
金融很大程度上就是吹牛耍嘴皮子。永远也不会接受一个稳定和风平浪静的时候,因为这样就没有操作和浑水摸鱼的机会了。为了保住政界的职位,先是刺激经济,煽风点火制造泡沫,形势一片大好民众们跟进,然后就是通货膨胀,民众生活危机,股市吸钱后收缩套牢。如果持续收缩,那么为了保住大家的官位避免泡沫破裂,便是大量发放货币和印钱。。。
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