有stata12的童鞋可以做一下
输入以下命令:
use
http://www.stata-press.com/data/r12/stocks(使用手册里面的例子,这是关于三款日本车收益率的时间序列)
mgarch dcc (toyota nissan honda = L.toyota L.nissan L.honda, noconstant), arch(1) garch(1)
得到的结果如下:
Dynamic conditional correlation MGARCH model
Sample: 1 - 2015 Number of obs = 2014
Distribution: Gaussian Wald chi2(9) = 19.54
Log likelihood = 17484.95 Prob > chi2 = 0.0210
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
toyota |
toyota |
L1. | -.0510868 .0339825 -1.50 0.133 -.1176912 .0155176
|
nissan |
L1. | .0297829 .0247455 1.20 0.229 -.0187174 .0782832
|
honda |
L1. | -.0162823 .0300323 -0.54 0.588 -.0751446 .0425799
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ARCH_toyota |
arch |
L1. | .0608224 .0086687 7.02 0.000 .043832 .0778127
|
garch |
L1. | .9222202 .0111055 83.04 0.000 .9004538 .9439866
|
_cons | 4.47e-06 1.15e-06 3.90 0.000 2.22e-06 6.72e-06
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nissan |
toyota |
L1. | -.0056722 .0389348 -0.15 0.884 -.081983 .0706386
|
nissan |
L1. | -.0287096 .0309379 -0.93 0.353 -.0893468 .0319275
|
honda |
L1. | .0154979 .0358802 0.43 0.666 -.054826 .0858218
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ARCH_nissan |
arch |
L1. | .0844245 .0128192 6.59 0.000 .0592993 .1095497
|
garch |
L1. | .89942 .0151125 59.51 0.000 .8698 .92904
|
_cons | 7.21e-06 1.93e-06 3.74 0.000 3.43e-06 .000011
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
honda |
toyota |
L1. | -.0272415 .0361818 -0.75 0.452 -.0981566 .0436736
|
nissan |
L1. | .0617491 .0271378 2.28 0.023 .00856 .1149382
|
honda |
L1. | -.0635071 .0332918 -1.91 0.056 -.1287578 .0017437
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
ARCH_honda |
arch |
L1. | .0490135 .0073696 6.65 0.000 .0345694 .0634576
|
garch |
L1. | .9331123 .0103687 89.99 0.000 .9127901 .9534345
|
_cons | 5.35e-06 1.35e-06 3.95 0.000 2.69e-06 8.00e-06
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Correlation |
toyota |
nissan | .668954 .0168018 39.81 0.000 .6360229 .701885
honda | .7259624 .0140154 51.80 0.000 .6984927 .7534322
-----------+----------------------------------------------------------------
nissan |
honda | .6335653 .0180409 35.12 0.000 .5982058 .6689247
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Adjustment |
lambda1 | .031528 .0088379 3.57 0.000 .014206 .04885
lambda2 | .8704086 .0613318 14.19 0.000 .7502005 .9906167
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
请问,谁可以告诉我如何解读这个结果?
lambda表示的是什么?这两个系数有什么特征等等。
DCC-GARCH模型没有均值方程又会说明什么?