Companies such as Vale and Petrobras, which export iron ore and oil respectively, are shielded by strong world prices for commodities. Both are turning in record results. Construction and services are boosted by strong domestic demand. But industry is struggling. Though overall unemployment is at a record low, manufacturers are laying off workers. Industrial production fell by 1.6% in June (see chart).

诸如淡水河谷和巴西国家石油公司这样的企业—它们分别出口铁矿石和石油—受强劲的国际原材料价格庇护，都交出了创纪录的业绩单。建筑业和服务业受到强劲的国内需求的推动。但工业仍在挣扎。尽管总的来说失业率处于历史低位，制造商们仍在裁减工人。工业产出在6月下跌了1.6%（见图表）。

In some ways the new industrial policy amounts to the continuation by other means of the “currency war” declared last year by Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega. Having previously increased a tax on short-term capital inflows and raised reserve requirements for banks’ currency trading, on July 27th he fired his latest salvo. Futures contracts that bet on further strengthening of the real are to be taxed at 1% of their notional value, and that rate could rise to 25% should the ministry deem it necessary. The announcement caused the real to fall by 2% against the dollar. But past experience suggests the reprieve will be short-lived.

在某些方面来说，新的工业政策相当于对巴西财政部长吉多·曼蒂加于去年宣称的“汇率战争”以其它方式的一种延续。在早先对短期资金流入增税和提高银行间货币交易的最低法定准备金率之后，他（指吉多·曼蒂加）在7月27日做了自己的最后一次齐射。对赌雷亚尔未来升值的期货合同将被征收其名义价值1%的税，并且如果财政部认为需要，这一税率可上升至25%。这一声明导致雷亚尔对美元的汇率下跌了2%。但根据过去的经验，（汇率上升压力）缓解只是暂时的。
（译者注：REAL，雷亚尔，巴西法定货币，下文中的“real”一般都应指它。）

Consumers may worry that curbs on imports will raise prices. And by giving special treatment to some industries, the measures introduce distortions. But the policy also suggests a new realism within government. Mr Mantega habitually refers to foreign “currency manipulators” as the source of Brazilian industrialists’ woes. Speaking in São Paulo on August 3rd Fernando Pimentel, the minister for industry, laid some of the blame closer to home. The strong real was likely to last for the foreseeable future, he said, and industrialists needed to learn to live with it.

消费者可能担心对进口的抑制会使商品价格上升。同时，给予一些行业特殊对待，这些措施会引起扭曲。但这些政策也表明了ZF内部的一种新现实主义态度。曼蒂加先生习惯性的指称外国“货币操纵者”是（造成）巴西工业悲惨现状的源头。8月3日在圣保罗的演讲中，贸易部长费尔南多·皮曼德尔，阐明对于一些指责，其实更应该管好的是自己。他说，在可预见的未来，强势雷亚尔的地位将持续，实业家们应当学会适应它。

Cutting payroll taxes for four chosen industries, he added, was just the start of a necessary updating of Brazil’s labyrinthine tax system. There is certainly room to do more. According to the World Bank’s annual “Doing Business” study, a hypothetical medium-sized business in Brazil loses 41% of its profits to payroll taxes, one of the world’s highest rates.

对四个选定行业的薪资税减免，他强调说，只是对巴西错综复杂的税收系统进行更新的起点。必然还会有更多行动。根据世界银行年度的“世界经商环境”报告，一个典型的中型企业在巴西要为缴纳薪资税失去41%的利润，这一比例是全球最高的之一。

RJPIAug 4th 2011 18:23 GMT
Brasil's problems are many and the new president seems out of touch.
The REAL is synonimus with "Toilett Paper".The upcoming Olympic Games, will make matters much worse.Petrobas is at best a mediocre oil company.Lots of new fields discovered but not enough capital or willingness to bring foreign investors.China is interested, but Brasil is scared.Lets wait and see.....
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巴西的问题很多而新总统似乎根本没触及到。
雷亚尔就是“厕纸”的同义词。即将到来的奥运会，将会使情况变得更糟。巴西石油公司顶多是个平庸的石油公司而已。很多新的地段被发现，但缺乏足够的资金和意愿吸引外国投资者。中国很有兴趣，但巴西又恐惧（他们）。让我们走着瞧吧....




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linharesAug 4th 2011 19:12 GMT
The only way Brazil is ever going to have low interest rates is by killing BNDES and making the government smaller. Neither will happen.
This is what everyone with half a brain knows (Ricardo Hausmann, Lazarinni, etc). But it will never be done, as industry has great lobbying power.
Sad to say, but BNDES is the optimum way brazilians have found to transfer wealth from the very poor to the very rich.
· Recommend11

巴西可能降低利率的唯一途径就是干掉巴西国家经济社会发展银行并使ZF变得更小。一个都不会发生的。
这是任何一个只要有半个脑子的人（里卡多·豪斯曼，连莎拉妮等等）都知道的，但这永远不会被实施，因为产业有着强大的游说能力。
悲哀地说，巴西国家经济社会发展银行的确是巴西人所找到的把财富从极贫困人群转到极富有人群手中的最佳方式。

（译者注：Ricardo Hausmann——里卡多·豪斯曼是美国哈佛大学国际发展中心主任，Lazarinni则不知何许人也，没有查到。BNDES即巴西国家经济社会发展银行，该银行是美洲最大的发展银行，也是为巴西生产企业提供长期金融服务的主要机构，主要服务工业领域和基础设施建设领域。）


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LMSFAug 4th 2011 20:01 GMT
Brazil created the Brazil Plan Largest to combat increased competition from foreign products and to protect the domestic industry. Brazilian industry will pay R$ 25 billion less in taxes, it’ll have R$ 500 billion of financing from BNDES, the Brazilian government will buy domestic goods more expensive in up to 25% in relation to foreign product, and it’ll pay 20% less of social insurance to its workers. This difference will be paid by the Brazilian government to social insurance. Brazil wants to have more national products being consumed by Brazilians, and also more jobs to Brazilians in its industry. This was another great extent the Dilma's government.
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巴西制定了巴西最大计划试图解决日益增长的来自外国产品的竞争，并保护本国工业。巴西的工业将少付250亿雷亚尔的税，他们将获得巴西国家经济社会发展银行5000亿雷亚尔的融资，巴西ZF将会够买比外国产品价格高25%的本国产品，并且他们还将少为他们的工人支付20%的社会保险。这一不同将由巴西ZF用社会保险买单。巴西希望有更多的本国产品被巴西人消费，同时在自己的工业中有更多的工作岗位。这是迪尔马ZF的另一个极大拓展。


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oABEPgf8EDAug 4th 2011 20:23 GMT
First, new package of tax cuts and other measures isn't a "so waited" brazillian industrial policy. The "Brasil Forte" plan is a third stage of a industrial policy than began with PITCE (Política Industrial, tecnológica e de Comércio Exterior), launched in 2004, by president Lula, after 20 anos without a real industrial policy (Law of Computers, in 1984, is what came more closely). In 2008, government launched PDP (Política de Desenvolvimento Produtivo), with incentives to 24 differents industries (against 4, in the PITCE). Second, having a industrial policy, Brazil is doing exactly what others countries do, nowadays or in the past (as Ha-Joon Chang shows to everyone who want to see). Global economy is a war. What we, brazillian, must to do? Just Sit and learn mandarin? No, thanks. Third, for those who believes that BNDES exist only to make rich people even richer, don't forget to include Abilio Diniz (Pão de Açucar/Carrefour) on the "Bolsa-Família" program for poors, because he don't look like someone who are helped by BNDES recently. BNDES is a key element of Brazil's development. If someone want to kill it, don't forget to let a place in the grave for Brazil's Economy. I think we can face our ghosts (patrimonialism, corruption, bad politicians, etc) without let all the decisions that evolves business to the market. Well, if we have only "half a brain", perhaps we will consider this proposal as a real one. Yeah, right!· Recommend10

第一，新的减税及其他措施的一揽子计划不是“万众期待”的巴西产业政策。“巴西优势”计划是一项首字母为PITCE（政治工业，技术和外贸）的产业政策的第三层，在经历了20年没有真正的产业政策之后，由卢拉总统于2004年推出。在2008年，ZF推出了PDP（生产发展政策），激励24种不同的产业（相对于PITCE中的4种）。

第二，制定一项产业政策，巴西所做的完全都是其他国家现在或过去做的（就像张夏准向所有愿意观看的人们所展示的那样）。世界经济是一场战争。我们，巴西人，该做什么？就是坐在那学说普通话？谢谢，不要。

第三，那些相信巴西国家经济社会发展银行的存在只是把富人变得更富的家伙，不要忘了包括阿比里奥·狄尼兹（糖面包/家乐福）在帮助穷人的“家庭救助计划”项目上，因为他可不像是最近被国家经济社会发展银行帮过的一个人。国家经济社会发展银行是巴西发展的一个关键要素。如果有人想干掉它，那别忘了给巴西经济的坟墓让个地。我想我们可以直面我们的幽灵（家产制，腐败，糟糕的政治等等）而不是把推进商业的决定都推给市场。恩，如果我们只有“半个脑子”，或许我们会认为这个建议是真的。没错，对的！

（译者注：本段含有很多葡萄牙语词汇和句子，如“anos”应当是葡萄牙语中的“年”，翻译的也不知准确与否。张夏准是韩国发展经济学泰斗，他的著作“踢走梯子”对当今的政治经济学有很大影响。阿比里奥·狄尼兹是巴西富豪，他的产业是巴西最大的连锁超市，当地人称为“Pão de Açucar”，即糖面包的意思，狄尼兹同意将自己超市帝国出售给法国零售商卡西诺公司后，在2011年，为了试图保留住公司，背着卡西诺与家乐福达成并购协议。）

Mr RipleyAug 4th 2011 22:04 GMT
Those who talk of war are asleep - The main factor in Chinese devaluation has been the INCREASING productivity of the Chinese. The Brazilian government are out of touch with reality. Brazil has become more open and that has brought advantages and risks too. Brazil has the advantage of being able to import technology and knowledge. It has the opportunity to learn from the mistakes made by others in the past. It has the opportunity to learn from it's own mistakes too. It has the opportunity to look to the west and see where the welfare system and socialism has taken us - a destructive path that has condemned masses of individuals in the United Kingdom to a life-time of poverty.
Those who talk of war do not understand economics and do not respect it's laws. PRODUCTIVITY - this is the free-market word. This is what you get when the masses are free. The productive activities of the masses provide the goods and services in abundence. With their increased availability - they become "cheap". The price controls, wage controls.. so many controls.. and these are curses for Brazil. Interferences. Ascribing status to groups of individuals at the expense of freedom. Taxing the poor (mostly indirectly) to finance the grand projects of a political and economic elite. They will further concentrate power away from the individual and this will not improve productivity and ultimately this will condemn Brazil to further crisis.
The Government needs to be cut down to size. Unfortunately it won't be . It will consume workers and move them out of the productive part of the economy into the unproductive bit. Shuffling papers and deciding where to spend other peoples money. It is a disgusting and unsustainable reality - it is destined to fail. The level of cuts required by Brazil into the future to preserve the increasing obligations will be enormous. Dutch disease was mentioned a long time ago - its plain to see that reality in Brazil today.
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那些谈论战争的人是麻木迟钝的——中国货币贬值的主要因素是增长的劳动生产率。巴西ZF完全脱离现实。巴西已变得更加开放，这既带来利益又带来风险。巴西的机遇是可以引进技术和知识。它有了机会从别人过去的错误中吸取教训。它也有机会从自己的错误中吸取教训。它有了机会看着西方，看看福利系统和社会主义带给了我们什么——一条宣告了大多数英国民众走向一生贫困的毁灭之路。

那些谈论战争的人不懂经济也不尊重它的法则。生产率——这是自由市场的至理名言。这是当大众被解放时你所得到的东西。大众的生产活动提供了丰富大量的产品和服务。随着他们熟练度的提高——他们变得“便宜”。价格管控，薪资管控..如此多的管控..这些是对巴西的诅咒。干涉。把人群归为不同的地位群体是自由的代价。向穷人征税（大多是间接地）来为政治和经济精英的宏伟计划提供资金。他们将从个人手中进一步集中权力，同时他们不会提高生产率，最终，他们将会把巴西判入进一步的危机中。

ZF需要被缩小规模。不幸的是这不会发生。它将吃喝工人的，并把他们从生产部分转移到非生产性的一小块去。翻页然后决定把剩下的人的钱花在哪。这是令人厌恶也无法持久的现实——它注定要失败。巴西保持未来不断增长的义务所需要进行的缩减的程度是巨大的。荷兰病很久以前就被提过了——痛苦的看到这就是巴西今日的现实。

（译者注：加粗部分是原文中作者特意大写强调的词语。“荷兰病”指的是1950年代荷兰因在北海发现了石油而发了一笔横财，带动该国货币升值却使其制造业的价格竞争力大减，后来被引申为一国特别是指中小国家经济的某一初级产品部门异常繁荣而导致其他部门的衰落的现象。）

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Giuliano SiderAug 5th 2011 5:10 GMT
Dear Friends and Fellow Commenters,
You guys are just too aggressive! You remind me of all those posts on the Estadão, Folha, Veja (etc) forums. Please, just sit back, relax, enjoy the article, and offer a few ideas. The Brazilian polity stands to gain from it. You'd expect to see more sober discussion in the Economist
That reminds me... last year's national campaign was shaping up to be the best, most enlightening one in memory, that is, until it actually started. The media were cooking up some nice discussions about the size of government, the nature of BNDES (national development bank) subsidies, the role of tax reform, etc. And then the campaign begins, and guess what? We're discussing whether Dilma Rouseff is a genuine devotee of Nossa Senhora Aparecida. We get a half-hearted, quarter-brained discussion about the evils of "privatization."
And we still expect to grow above 4% in the long haul? No folks, not without structural reforms. And structural reforms won't happen without genuine political discussion. How can we expect politicians to step up to the plate if the quality of public opinion continues to suffer?
I think it's precipitated to claim that Brazil is undergoing "deindustrialization." Lots of companies are looking to shift their production here - to take advantage of the enormous, and growing market, and to export to the rest of South America. This is certainly the case with the car industry, which complains a lot about "the flood of imports", and which, let's face it, has a lot of political clout in Brazil. They get nice little tax cuts all the time (IPI, ICMS, alphabet soup of exemptions) - though I'm not saying doing business in Brazil is all wonderful.
I remember a recent BBC feature on the rise of China that, when addressing the concerns about deindustrialization in Brazil, showed the example of a crummy little bikini factory. I guess they had to feature Brazilian bikinis in the show somehow. Otherwise it just couldn't be a report about Brazil, right, not without those beaches and bikinis. Definitely, some industries have suffered since Brazil's opening up to trade in the 90s, among them the textile and shoemaking industries. But folks, maybe we should send the BBC a letter saying that, however much we love those bikinis, they are actually not a strategic industry for Brazil. Really. They are a host of other Asian countries with a potent labor supply who can deliver some of these goods. We don't have to excel at every labor intensive industry out there.
In contrast to the shoemakers, the car, aircraft, and food processing industries are doing quite well, to name a few. These are probably success stories that we would do well to emulate. Instead of supporting the most politically powerful industries, we could take those 25 billion and invest in education and job retraining. How did Brazil come to have an impressive aircraft industry (despite awful airports)? Not even because of government contracts, although it looks like those are on the rise (like the KC-390 tanker under development by Embraer). It was a mix of government and business that spawned the modern Embraer. Only with the government's support for engineering at the Air Force Institute of Technology could the world's 4th largest planemaker have been born. And only with the reforms brought about by privatization in the 90s could it have become one of Brazil's biggest exporters. If only Brazil had learned from decades of "import-substitution industrialization" and invested in education instead of corporate tax breaks...
But I won't deny: education is a long-term investment. How does one deal with the challenges of the "currency war?" Because yes, Brazil has competitiveness issues: bad roads, large informal economy, relatively high tax burden and a Byzantine bureaucracy, corruption, WORLD CHAMPION of high real interest rates - just to name a few. But Brazil is also dealing with a tight spot for its own non-commodity exporters (these, like Vale, are reaping a bumper harvest). Asian economies, China foremost, are buying up commodities, driving their prices higher, while they spew cheap industrial goods, driving prices lower. The terms of trade shock is good for the Brazilian trade balance, but it reorients our economy strongly towards commodities, which is not sustainable in the long haul. Why would we produce steel when there is huge overcapacity in China? Why would we not just become huge suppliers of iron ore? Oil? Soybeans? And so forth.
First, there is the problem of Dutch Disease - perhaps that is one driver of Brazil's record beating currency appreciation since 2009. There are other factors at work here, like the reportedly "stratospheric" interest rates, themselves a fascinating topic on which to spill ink. But the role of the strong export sector cannot be discounted. Also, just as we have seen terms of trade booms - we have also seen busts. Commodities can be quite volatile.
· Recommend18

亲爱的朋友们以及后来的评论者，

你们这些家伙都太具有侵略性了！你们让我们想起了那些《圣保罗州通讯社》，《圣保罗页报》，《观察周刊》（等等）上的文章。请只管坐回去，放松放松，欣赏文章，并提供点意见。巴西政治从中获益。你们也希望从《经济学人》看到更加清醒稳重的讨论吧。

这让我想起了...去年的大选在它真正开始以前，就被塑造为最好的，记忆中最予人启迪的一次。媒体虚构了一些很好的讨论，关于ZF规模、关于BNDES（国家发展银行）援助的本质、关于税收改革的角色等等。然后竞选开始了，猜猜怎么？我们讨论的是迪尔玛·罗瑟夫到底是不是圣母大教堂真实的奉献者。我们搞了一场关于“私有化”罪恶的三心二意、不经脑子的讨论。

然后我们还期望着在长期能有4%以上的增长？不，乡亲们，没有体制上的改革是不可能的。而体制改革不可能在没有真诚的政治讨论的情况下发生。如果政治观点的品质一直饱受折磨，我们怎么能期望政治家们能站出来呢？

我想已经可以断言，巴西正在经历“去工业化”。许多企业正在寻求将他们的这里生产转移——以在这个庞大的、不断增长的市场里取得优势，同时出口到南美的其他地区去。这确切无疑的是汽车业的情况，他们经常抱怨“进口的洪流”，同时让我们正视，这是在巴西有着巨大政治影响力的（产业）。他们一直有着很好的小减税（IPI,ICMS，名目繁多的免税）——当然我不是在说在巴西做生意是很美妙的。

我记得一部最近BBC关于中国崛起话题的故事片，当探寻到关于巴西去工业化的担心时，展示了一家寒酸的小比基尼厂为例子。我想他们应当在这个展示中以某种方式给巴西比基尼一个特写。否则那就不能作为关于巴西的报导，没错，不能没有那些海滩和比基尼。当然，一些产业自从巴西90年代开放贸易之后就饱受磨难，其中就有纺织业和制鞋业。但是乡亲们，或许我们应该给BBC写封信告诉他们，不管我们多喜欢那些比基尼，它们都不是巴西的一项战略性产业。它们是其他有着丰富劳动力供应的亚洲国家们能够生产的产品。我们不必要在每一项劳动密集性产业上都胜出。

与制鞋商形成对比的是，我列举一小部分，汽车、航空以及食品加工行业都干得相当不错。这些大概都是我们应该效法的成功故事。我们可以把那250亿雷亚尔投向教育和再就业培训，而不是扶持那些最具有政治影响力的行业。巴西是怎么拥有令人印象深刻的航空产业的（不管那些糟糕的机场）？不只是因为ZF的合同，尽管这（指来自ZF的合同）在上升（比如巴西航空工业集团开发的KC-390加油机）。是一种ZF和商业（力量）的混合孵化了现代的巴西航空工业集团。只有在ZF的支持下，在空军航空技术学院中进行工程研发，世界第四大飞机制造商才能诞生。也只有在90年代由私有化带来的改革后，它才能成为巴西最大的出口商之一。如果巴西能从过去几十年的“进口替代工业化”（战略）中吸取教训并投资教育而不是给企业税收减免就好了...

但我也不否认：教育是长期的投资。那该怎样应对“汇率战争”的挑战呢？当然，巴西在竞争力上有些问题：糟糕的道路交通，规模巨大的非正式经济，相对较高的税收负担还有拜占庭式的官僚主义机构，贪污腐败，世界最高的实际利率——这只是列举了一小部分。但巴西同时也在处理一个对非原材料出口商（那些，比如淡水河谷，正在收获一场大丰收）来说的紧要关头。亚洲经济体，最主要是中国，正在疯狂买入大宗商品，推动它们的价格走高，同时他们疯狂喷吐廉价工业产品，使其价格下降。这种贸易冲击的形式对巴西的贸易收支有利，但它也强有力地重塑了我们的经济使其更倾向于原材料产业——这从长期来看是不可持续的。当中国存在着巨量的钢铁生产力过剩时，为什么我们还会去生产呢？为什么我们不就干脆做个铁矿石的供应者呢？石油（供应者）？大豆（供应者）？如此等等。

首先，这有个荷兰病的难题——或许这是巴西自2009年以来在汇率战争上失败记录的驱动之一。也有其他因素在同时作用，比如相对而言“同温层似”（极高）的实际利率，它们本身也是非常吸引人着墨的话题。但强力出口部门的角色不能不被重视。同样的，就在我们看到的贸易繁荣的同时——我们也要想到萧条。原材料产业是相当不稳定的。

（译者注：由于过去通胀压力巨大，同时为吸引外资，巴西保持着极高的利率，经过去年三次降息，巴西目前的基准利率仍高达11%，而欧美几乎为零。同时由于和中国不同，巴西实行的是自由浮动的汇率制度，并有复杂而先进的股票、债券和衍生工具市场，所以大量资本涌入巴西，推高了巴西货币。按某些标准衡量，巴西货币雷亚尔是目前全球被高估程度最为严重的货币，巴西国内的许多工厂在全球市场上没有竞争力）

Giuliano SiderAug 5th 2011 6:06 GMT
Although Brazil's economy, as a whole, does not depend so much on commodities for export, what would be the impact of major Asian/Chinese slowdown? Maybe it wouldn't be that bad - the Real would depreciate and the current account wouldn't even be a problem. But maybe the commodity-related supply chains run deeper than we think. Who would have thought the Japanese earthquake/tsunami would deal so much damage to global supply chains?Also, the commodity sector provides limited employment. It's one of the elements on which you can base your economy - having a comparative advantage in agriculture is wonderful. But it's only one pillar of a successful economy. Commodities are a blessing to Australia's economy, but it wouldn't be a developed nation if it weren't for a robust service sector. And they are a nation of 22 million, vs. Brazil's 193.But, I think, in the end, Brazil has a more diversified economy than people think. It's neither too dependent on commodities and "deindustrialized", but nor is it one of the great "workshops of the world" either. China, the US, the EU, and Argentina each account for around 10% of Brazil's trade. The threat of deindustrialization does exist, though, in two ways:1. Short term capital inflows, coupled with strong commodity exports and weakness in developed economies all drive the currency near historic highs. Ultra loose policy by the Fed, and China's undervalued Yuan peg exacerbate the matter.2. Long term problem: competitiveness. The commodity sector is super-competitive. Brazilian iron ore kicks ass. Most other sectors are not. This can only be addressed with structural reforms: responsible tax system, gradual decline of the "pornographic" interest rates (thanks for the image, Maluf), allocation of funds to badly needed infrastructure projects, tackling corruption, and the big one - the one that determines how developed a society is - education.Production of knowledge reinforces comparative advantages, and creates new ones. Example: Embrapa and the government's investment in basic research has spearheaded an Agricultural Revolution in the Cerrado states. Standing ovation. Investment in scientists and engineers at ITA creates a world-class aircraft company. Wow! The inexperienced might look at Brazil and think we would produce *****ty airplanes looking at fiascos like the Gol and Tam accidents in the past.The bottom line is: payroll tax cuts and "industrial policy" are not necessarily a bad idea, especially in a year when industry is feeling the pinch of the "currency war." But please, don't overdo it. Extending more privileges to privileged sectors is not a good idea. But this is hard earned taxpayers' money. Don't think we can't see all those subsidies in BNDES' balance sheet. Well, as a matter of fact, most Brazilians don't see it. We have a longstanding history of murky relations between the big business and big government. We don't have enough Embrapas and Embraers to show for it. We don't have a culture of accountability with our public money. The result is the State (with a Capital S), along with its generous extended family of "agregados" and rent-seekers, crowding out the private sector. Add to that the low rate of household savings, and we have the ingredients for a terrible recipe: the highest, most "exorbitant" (thanks Fiesp) real interest rates in the world.The great Mr. Aloisio Mercadante, PhD, Minister for Science and Technology, author of an economics PhD thesis reeking of election pamphleteering (thanks Unicamp!), has taken note of Embrapa's solid success and (after probably taking credit for it in the process) suggested the creation of an "industrial Embrapa." A nice a panacea for our industry's competitiveness issues - it's like making a general purpose "vaccine" for cancer. In the vision of our Unicamp economists, the Industrial Embrapa already exists, and has an acronym of its own: BNDES.To insinuate that the National Development Bank is the Brazilian Gosplan or Politburo is probably going too far... what about successful examples like Japan's MITI or China's National Development and Reform Commission? Well, in those cases, there are many other factors at play. The 2008 recession shows that there is an important role for state development banks. While private lenders were retrenching and reducing their balance sheets, state-owned lenders countered the credit crunch more bravely, more decisively and more quickly than those in America and Europe. And in Brazil, where the market for long term lending is, well, it doesn't exist, the BNDES is the only real option besides selling equity or resorting to the Mafia, or a loan shark.But these funds come with a cost... to the rest of us. If the BNDES steps in decisively during emergencies, as it did in 2008, fine. If it funds tech startups, great. If it comes up with innovative financing solutions for building schools, funding teachers' salaries, underwriting water/sewer bonds... excellent.
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        尽管巴西经济，作为一个整体，不是那么依赖于大宗商品出口，但如果来自亚洲/中国的大部分进口减缓会怎么样？也许那不是那么糟——雷亚尔会贬值同时经常账户不再是一个问题。但也许大宗商品相关的供应链比我们想的要更重要。谁会想到日本的地震/海啸会对全球供应链造成如此大的损害呢？

同时，原材料部门提供了有限的就业岗位。这是你可以以之为经济的基础的要素之一——在农业上有比较优势是很棒的的事。但它只是一个成功经济体的一个方面。原材料产业是上天对澳大利亚经济的庇佑，但如果没有稳健的服务业，他也不能成为一个发达国家。而且他们是一个只有2200万人口的国家VS巴西有1亿9300万。

但是，我认为，最终，巴西有一个比人们认为的更多样化的经济。它即没有太过依赖原材料行业而“去工业化”了，也没有成为“世界工厂”之一。中国、美国、欧盟、阿根廷各自在巴西的对外贸易中占10%左右的份额。当然，去工业化的威胁是存在的，在以下两个方面：

1、 短期资本流入，伴随着强劲的大宗商品出口和发达经济体的低迷，都推动着汇率接近历史高位。美联储的超宽松货币政策，以及中国被低估的人民币管制汇率都加剧了这一情况。

2、 长期问题：竞争力。大宗商品行业是超有竞争力的。巴西铁矿石太他喵的厉害了（译者注：原文居然是kicks ass）。大部分其他部门则不是这样的。这只能通过体制改革来解决——负责任的税收体系，逐步降低“淫秽”的利率（谢谢你的想象，马卢夫），配置资金到极度需要的基础设施项目，打击腐败，还有个大家伙——一个决定了一个社会发展程度的东西——教育。

（译者注：关于Maluf，我只搜到了一个叫Eduardo Maluf Miguel的，艾德瓦多·马卢夫·米格尔。他是一名巴西圣保罗报的记者，关于他有一则有趣的新闻http://www.cntcmvideo.com/zgzyyb ... 8/content_11562.htm）

知识的生产强化了竞争优势，并创造了新的竞争优势。例如：Embrapa（巴西农业研究公司/机构）和ZF在基础研究上的投资引领了塞拉多州的农业革命。起立鼓掌。ITA（巴西航空理工学院）在科学家和工程师上的投资创造了世界级的飞机制造企业。哇哦！那些不经事的或许在看着巴西，并且认为我们会制造劣等的飞机，看看过去像GOL和TAM发生的空难之类的惨败吧。

（译者注：GOL和TAM为巴西戈尔航空公司和塔姆航空公司，二者分别在2006年和2007年发生了巴西航空史上最严重的两起空难。）

底线是：薪资税减免和“工业政策”不必然是坏主意，尤其是在工业感受着“汇率战争”困苦的这一年。但是请，千万别做过头了。给特权行业以更多的特权不是个好主意。这是纳税人辛辛苦苦挣得的钱，不要以为我们不能从巴西国家发展银行的资产负债表中看出那些津贴。好吧，事实上，大多数巴西人的确是没有意识到。我们有长期的历史中，大ZF与大商业集团有着黑暗隐晦的关系。我们没有足够多的巴西农业研究公司和巴西航空工业集团们来展示它。我们没有一种对我们的公共资金要负责的文化。结果就是国家（以S为首字母），连同大肆扩展的“集合体”和寻租者家族，正在排挤出私人部门。在较低居民储蓄率上，我们有一份糟糕处方的配料：世界上最高的，最“过分的”（感谢Fiesp）实际利率。

伟大的阿洛伊兹奥·梅尔卡丹特博士，科技部长，在经济学位毕业论文中都散发选举小册子的作者（感谢巴西金边大学！），最近注意到了巴西航空工业集团稳健的成功并且（可能在这一过程中得到好评之后）建议创立一种“巴航工业”。一剂很好的针对我们贸竞争力难题的万灵药——就好比想发明一种包治所有癌症的“疫苗”一样。在我们金边大学经济学家的想象力，“巴航工业”基本上已经存在了，并且有着自己的简称：BNDES（巴西国家经济社会发展银行）。

如果暗示国家发展银行是巴西的计划经济委员会或是政治局就扯得有点远了...那成功的例子比如日本的通产省或是中国的发改委怎么样？当然，在这些案例中，有许多其他的因素在运作。2008年的经济衰退显示国家发展银行有着一个重要的地位。当私人贷款者紧缩开支并减少其资产负债表时，（巴西的）国有贷款者面对信用恐慌表现的反而比美国和欧洲的同行们更加勇敢、果断和迅速。当然，在巴西，长期借贷市场吗，是不存在的，除了出售股本或是求助于黑手党/高利贷，巴西国家经济社会发展银行是唯一现实的选择。

但这些资金是有代价的...对我们其他人来说。如果巴西国家经济社会发展银行在紧急情况下能够像它在2008年做的一样果决，不错。如果他的资本技术启动，很好。如果它还能在建学校、给老师发薪水、资助给排水系统等方面个新奇金融解决方案的话...那就棒极了。