Contents
List of Figures, Tables and Boxes xi
Preface xxxv
Online Supplemental Material xxxvii
Acknowledgements xxxix
Chapter highlights xli
List of abbreviations xlvii
Chapter 1 Prospective Climatic Change, Impacts and Constraints 1
1.1 Past changes of climate 2
1.2 Prospective future changes of climate 3
1.3 Drivers of energy use and fossil fuel CO2 emissions 7
1.4 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 10
1.5 Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration 17
1.6 Purpose and organization of this book and of Volume 2 21
Chapter 2 Energy Basics, Usage Patterns and Trends, and Related Greenhouse
Gas and Pollutant Emissions 23
2.1 Energy and efficiency concepts 23
2.2 Trends in energy use and cost 25
2.3 Overview of present-day energy supply and demand 28
2.4 Energy resources and energy reserves 40
2.5 Peaking in the rates of extraction of fossil fuels 41
2.6 Emissions of GHGs and aerosols, radiative forcing and present
global warming commitment 56
2.7 Non-climatic environmental costs of fossil fuel use 65
2.8 A glimpse of technological changes over the past 100 years 73
Chapter 3 Generation of Electricity from Fossil Fuels 77
3.1 Some basics on electricity and electricity generation 78
3.2 Electricity from fossil fuels 81
3.3 Cogeneration and trigeneration 96
3.4 Cost of generating electricity 104
3.5 Water requirements of thermal powerplants 111
3.6 Summary 111
Chapter 4 Energy Use in Buildings 115
4.1 Physical principles 116
4.2 Thermal envelope and the role of building shape, form, orientation and size 126
4.3 Heating systems 137
4.4 Heat pumps 142
4.5 Cooling loads and cooling devices 148
4.6 Heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems 172
4.7 Domestic hot water 180
4.8 Lighting 183
4.9 Appliances, consumer electronics and office equipment 190
4.10 Embodied energy and operating energy 205
4.11 Demonstrated energy savings in advanced new buildings and the role of
the design process 213
4.12 Energy savings through retrofits of existing buildings 228
4.13 Summary 243
Chapter 5 Transportation Energy Use 247
5.1 Introduction 247
5.2 Role of urban form in passenger transportation energy use 254
5.3 Role of vehicle choice in passenger transportation energy use 260
5.4 Technical options for reducing automobile and light truck energy use 262
5.5 Intercity passenger rail and urban and intercity buses 310
5.6 Passenger aircraft 313
5.7 Freight 319
5.8 Summary 328
Chapter 6 Industrial Energy Use 331
6.1 Present-day patterns of industrial energy use 331
6.2 Overview of major industrial commodities 331
6.3 Iron and steel 336
6.4 Aluminium 350
6.5 Copper 358
6.6 Zinc, stainless steel and titanium 372
6.7 Cement 376
6.8 Glass 388
6.9 Pulp and paper 393
6.10 Plastics 404
6.11 Petroleum refining 409
6.12 Chemical industries 411
6.13 Desalination of seawater 412
6.14 Cogeneration and heat management 413
6.15 Motors and motor-drive systems 417
6.16 Summary 420
Chapter 7 Agricultural and Food System Energy Use 425
7.1 Introduction 425
7.2 Nitrogen fertilizer and the N cycle 425
7.3 Phosphorus fertilizer and potential supply constraints 427
7.4 Reducing fertilizer energy use 429
7.5 Pesticides 439
7.6 Direct energy use on farms 440
7.7 Comparative energy use and yield of conventional and low-input systems 441
7.8 Energy use by fisheries 445
7.9 Impact of a consumer shift to less energy-intensive diets 446
viii ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES
7.10 Impact of globalized versus localized agriculture 463
7.11 Summary 466
Chapter 8 Municipal Services 469
8.1 Supply of water 469
8.2 Wastewater treatment 471
8.3 Solid wastes 473
8.4 Recreational facilities 488
8.5 Summary 490
Chapter 9 Community-Integrated Energy Systems 493
9.1 Introduction 493
9.2 District heating 493
9.3 District cooling 496
9.4 Advantages and economics of district energy systems 497
9.5 Cogeneration and trigeneration 498
9.6 Summary 506
Chapter 10 Energy Demand Scenarios 509
10.1 Introduction 509
10.2 Drivers of future CO2 emissions 510
10.3 Summary of the potential for physical energy intensity reductions 514
10.4 Grand synthesis: Constructing scenarios of future energy demand with
aggressive efficiency measures 518
Chapter 11 Policies to Reduce the Demand for Energy 537
11.1 Limiting future population 537
11.2 Limiting economic growth 539
11.3 Increasing the price of energy 543
11.4 Promoting energy efficiency 545
11.5 Promoting diets low in meat and with less embodied energy 549
11.6 Research and development in energy efficiency and renewable energy 550
11.7 Rebound effects 553
11.8 Reflections on the primal role of economic growth today 556
Appendix A Units and Conversion Factors 559
Appendix B Heating Values of Fuels and Energy Equivalents 561
Appendix C Definitions of Country Groups 563
Appendix D Financial Parameters 564
Appendix E Alternative Measures of Transportation Fuel Efficiency 566
Appendix F Websites with More Information 567
References 569
Index 603