Timefor a fightback in the currency wars   
货币战争-反击时间到了

   The most overlooked cause of the economic weakness in the US and Europe is what we call the “global currency wars”. If all currency intervention were to cease, we estimate that the US trade deficit would fall by $150bn-$300bn, or 1-2 per cent of gross domestic product. Between 1m and 2m jobs would be created. The eurozone would gain by a lesser but still substantial amount. Countries that were engaged in intervention could offset the impact on their economies by expanding domestic demand.
     对于美国和欧洲来说，最容易被忽略的经济弱点是我们称之为“全球货币战争”的东西。如果所有的货币干预政策都停止的话，我们估计美国的贸易逆差将会减少1500亿～3000亿美元，或者相当于我国（美国）国民生产总值的1～2%，同时将创造100～200万新的工作机会。同时欧元区将得到一个相对较少但仍然可观的（增收）数量。涉嫌货币干预的国家可以通过扩大自己的国内需求来抵消这一行动（停止货币干预突然停止，译者注）的冲击。


   China is by far the largest currency aggressor but has not been the major perpetrator of late. Three distinct groups are now involved. First are other Asian countries, including Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand and Malaysia. Second are major oil exporters including the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria. Third are rich countries near to the eurozone, most notably Switzerland but also Denmark and Israel. If Mitt Romney is elected US president, he will be able to label many countries as currency manipulators on his first day in the Oval Office, not just China, as he has promised.
   中国是迄今为止在“货币战争中”的最大挑战者，但不是近来的主要肇事者（或者始作俑者更好，译者注）。参与此事（指货币干预，译者注）的国家可以分成明显的三组。第一是亚洲的其他国家，包括日本，新加坡，台湾（中国的，译者注），韩国，中国香港，泰国和马来西亚。第二组主要是石油输出国，包括阿联酋，俄罗斯，挪威，沙特，科威特和阿尔及利亚。第三组是以瑞士为代表的，靠近（或者说亲近，译者注）欧元区的富裕国家，当然也包括丹麦和以色列。如果罗姆尼被选为美国总统，他将会在椭圆办公室（指白宫，译者注）上班的第一天给很多国家贴上“货币操纵”的标签，而不仅仅只有中国，正如他已经承诺过的。


These countries all exhibit rapidly growing levels of foreign currency reserves as well as significant current-account surpluses. They buy US dollars and euros to suppress the value of their own currencies, keeping the price of their exports down and the cost of their imports up. Thus they subsidise exports and tax imports, enabling them to maintain or increase trade surpluses and pile up foreign exchange reserves. These tactics, in effect, export unemployment to the rest of the world. China has largely curtailed its currency aggression, at least for now, but many other countries remain highly active.
   这些国家展示出迅速增长的外汇储备的同时，仍保持可观的国际收支经常项目顺差。他们购买美元和欧元来抑制其本国货币的升值，使其出口货物保持在较低价格的同时使进口成本上升。同时，他们给予出口（货物）补贴，对进口货物征税，使得他们能保持或者提高其贸易顺差，积累外汇储备。这些策略，从效果上来说，将失业问题输出到世界上的其他国家。中国，至少现在来看，已经在很大程度上缩减了其货币的攻击性（指人民币升值，译者注），但这一策略在其他很多国家仍然保持很高的运作效率。