International Studies of Economics

Special Issue: Cities and Economic Development

Guest Editors: Shihe Fu, Wuhan University; Junfu Zhang, Clark University

Introduction to the Special Issue: Cities and Economic Development

Shihe Fu, Junfu Zhang

“城市与经济发展”专辑简介

Estimating Round-Tripping FDI from Firm-Level Data in China

Zeyi Qian,  Junfu Zhang,  Qiangyuan Chen

基于中国企业层面数据的“返程”外资估算

Does National Auditing Improve Local Fiscal Transparency? Evidence from China

Zhuo Chen,  Mingzhi Hu

国家审计能否提高地方财政透明度？来自中国的证据

Temporal and Spatial Effects of Mass Shootings on Gun Demand

Yuan Chen,  Xun Li,  Lisi Shi,  Rui Wang,  Qikexin Yu

大规模枪击事件对枪支需求的时空影响

Localized and Short-Term Effects of Lockdowns on Urban Rental Markets: Evidence from Shanghai

Yanpeng Jiang,  Xiaochi Shen

封控对城市租赁市场的局部和短期影响：来自上海的证据

The Effect of Income Polarizationon Crime: Evidence from Court Judicial Documents in China

Jingqi Liu, Chen Wang, Yuzhou Wang

收入极化对犯罪的影响：来自中国法院裁判文书的证据

Dynamic Henry George Theorem and Optimal City Sizes

Shihe Fu

动态亨利·乔治定理与最优城市规模

摘要

Estimating Round-Tripping FDI from Firm-Level Data in China

Abstract：When capital leaves a country and then flows back as foreign direct investment(FDI), we call it round-tripping FDI. It is widely suspected that China's official FDI statistics contain a substantial amount of round-tripping FDI. However, it is difficult to quantify the round-tripping FDI due to the lack of data. In this paper, we propose two methods to identify round-tripping FDI. The first one tracks capital flows at the firm level. If a firm in China invests in a foreign firm and this foreign firm makes an investment back to China shortly after, then we consider this investment to China as round-tripping FDI. Our second measure of round-tripping FDI adds to the first measure by including investments in China made by Chinese investors registered in tax havens. The first estimate of round-tripping FDI accounts for up to 3% of China's total FDI from 1999 to 2015, whereas the second estimate accounts for up to 70% in the period. Our firm-level analysis shows that industrial firms facing higher tax burdens are more likely to make round-tripping FDI. We also show that at the city level, adjusted FDI statistics by subtracting the estimated round-tripping FDI are better predictors of imports and exports. Finally, we show that provinces receiving higher shares of round-tripping FDI are more likely to be punished for illegal financial activities. Taken together, these findings suggest that our measures of round-tripping FDI, although noisy, are indicative of real transactions.

基于中国企业层面数据的“返程”外资估算

摘要：当资本离开一国后又以外国直接投资（FDI）的形式回流时，我们称之为“返程”外资。人们普遍怀疑，中国官方FDI统计中包含大量返程外资。然而，由于数据匮乏，很难量化返程外资的规模。本文提出了两种识别返程外资的方法。第一种方法在企业层面追踪资本流动：若中国企业投资于一家外国企业，而该外国企业随后又在短期内对中国进行投资，则这笔投资被视为返程外资。第二种方法在第一种的基础上，进一步将注册在避税地的中国投资者对中国的投资纳入返程外资的估算范围。

根据第一种方法，从1999年到2015年，返程外资约占中国FDI总量的3%；而根据第二种更宽泛的估算，该比例高达70%。基于企业层面的分析显示，税负较高的工业企业更倾向于进行返程外资投资。在城市层面，从FDI统计中剔除估算的返程外资后，调整后的FDI更能有效预测进出口表现。最后，研究还发现，接受较高比例返程外资的省份，更可能因非法金融活动而受到处罚。综上所述，尽管我们的返程外资测度存在一定噪声，但能够反映真实的交易行为。

Does National Auditing Improve Local Fiscal Transparency? Evidence from China

Abstract:This paper examines whether and how national audits affect local fiscal transparency in China. Using panel data from 30 provinces between 2009 and2018, we find that national audits significantly improve local fiscal transparency after controlling for various economic and institutional factors. The effect of national audits on fiscal transparency varies significantly by region, which is stronger and statistically significant in eastern regions and in regions with high land finance, while not significant in central-western regions or in those with low land finance. Furthermore, the positive impact is primarily driven by the disclosure and defense functions. These findings suggest that national audits are valuable for improving fiscal transparency, but their effectiveness varies depending on regional economic development and local government financing mechanisms.

国家审计能否提高地方财政透明度？来自中国的证据

摘要：本文研究了国家审计是否以及如何影响中国的地方财政透明度。我们利用2009 年至 2018 年 30 个省份的面板数据，发现在控制了各种经济和制度因素后，国家审计显著提高了地方财政透明度。国家审计对财政透明度的影响因地区不同而存在显著差异，在东部地区和土地财政较高的地区，国家审计对财政透明度的影响更强，且在统计上显著，而在中西部地区和土地财政较低的地区，国家审计对财政透明度的影响并不显著。此外，积极影响主要是由信息披露和辩护功能驱动的。这些研究结果表明，国家审计对于提高财政透明度具有重要价值，但其效果因地区经济发展和地方政府融资机制而异。

Temporal and Spatial Effects of Mass Shootings on Gun Demand

Abstract: Mass shootings in the U.S. have been at the center of the public crisis debate for a long time. Combining information on mass shootings with background check reports from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, this study applies mass shootings as exogenous shocks and reveals that the demand for guns is especially strong in the month in which a shooting occurs, and it decays with time. In addition, results confirm a spatial spillover effect of mass shootings, in which a mass shooting in one state affects gun demand in other states. The magnitude of the effect depends on the distance between the states. Our analysis also explores the difference in the effects between states with loose regulations on handguns and long guns and those with strict regulations. In the former, gun demand increases significantly after mass shootings, whereas in the latter the increase is insignificant. Finally, this study shows that consumers respond heterogeneously given the different characteristics of masss hootings, such as the number of victims and location.

大规模枪击事件对枪支需求的时空影响

摘要：长期以来，美国的大规模枪击事件一直是公共危机辩论的焦点。本研究将大规模枪击事件的信息与联邦调查局的背景调查报告相结合，将大规模枪击事件作为外生冲击，揭示了枪击事件发生当月的枪支需求尤为旺盛，后随着时间的推移而衰减。此外，研究结果还证实了大规模枪击事件的空间溢出效应，即一个州发生大规模枪击事件会影响其他州的枪支需求。该效应大小取决于事发州与其他州之间的地理距离。本文还探讨了手枪和长枪管制宽松州与管制严格州之间的效应差异。在前者，大规模枪击事件发生后枪支需求会显著增加，而在后者，这种需求增加并不明显。最后，本研究表明，鉴于大规模枪击事件的不同特点（如受害者人数和地点），消费者的反应也存在异质性。

Localized and Short-Term Effects of Lockdowns on Urban Rental Markets: Evidence from Shanghai

Abstract:This paper investigates the localized and short-term effects of COVID-19-induced lockdowns on Shanghai's rental market in the second half of 2022. Using Difference-in-Differences methodologies, we find that rental prices declined by 1.5% following the lockdowns on average, with areas characterized by a high density of companies falling by 2.0% and no significant change in suburban areas. Event-study analysis further reveals that this decline peaked at 3.0% 2 months post-lockdown. This decline was temporary with rental prices returning to pre-lockdown levels within 12 months. Robustness checks and comparisons with housing sale prices confirm the absence of significant spillover effects or structural shifts. These findings underscore the localized and temporary nature of lockdown-induced disruptions in the rental market and may be valuable to housing policymakers considering responses to short-term crises.

封控对城市租赁市场的局部和短期影响：来自上海的证据

摘要：本文研究了 2022 年下半年由 COVID-19 引发的封控对上海租赁市场的局部和短期影响。我们利用双重差分法发现停工后租赁价格平均下跌了 1.5%，其中公司密集区域下跌了2.0%，而郊区则没有显著变化。事件研究分析进一步显示，这种租金下跌在封控2个月后达到顶峰，跌幅为 3.0%。这种下跌是暂时的，租金价格在12个月内即恢复到封控前的水平。稳健性检验以及与住房销售价格的比较证实，没有出现显著的溢出效应或结构性转变。这些发现凸显了封控引发的租赁市场混乱具有局部性和暂时性，可能对考虑短期危机应对的住房政策制定者很有价值。

The Effect of Income Polarization on Crime: Evidence from Court Judicial Documents in China

Abstract: Crime affects social stability and people's safety, and directly increases the cost of urban development. Existing literature shows that income distribution affects crime, but it mainly focuses on the effect of income inequality and poverty, with scant evidence addressing the impact of income polarization on crime. Applying data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and judicial documents from 2014 to 2018, this paper demonstrates that rising income polarization significantly increases crime in cities. The result still holds after a series of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analyses show that income polarization has a more pronounced effect on criminal activities related to violent, robbery and stealing, drug and financial fraud. Moreover, cities with a higher proportion of young and migrant populations would be more adversely affected by income polarization. Mechanism analyses indicate that income polarization exacerbates crime by increasing alienation, reducing job-seeking willingness and happiness of residents.

收入极化对犯罪的影响：来自中国法院裁判文书的证据

摘要：犯罪影响社会稳定和人民安全，直接增加城市发展成本。现有文献表明，收入分配会影响犯罪，但主要集中于研究收入不平等和贫困的影响，很少有证据涉及收入极化对犯罪的影响。本文运用2014至2018年间中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）以及裁判文书数据，证明收入极化的加剧会显著增加城市犯罪。经过一系列稳健性检验，这一结论仍然成立。异质性分析表明，收入极化对暴力、抢劫盗窃、毒品和金融诈骗等犯罪活动的影响更为明显。此外，年轻人和流动人口占比较高的城市受收入极化的负面影响更大。机制分析表明，收入极化会加剧疏离感，降低居民的求职意愿和幸福感，从而加剧犯罪。

Dynamic Henry George Theorem and Optimal City Sizes

Abstract: The Henry George Theorem (HGT) in static models states that when a city has an optimal population size, aggregate urban differential land rents exactly cover costs of pure public goods. This paper extends the static HGT to dynamic settings. Through a series of dynamic models, the paper tentatively concludes that the HGT holds in dynamic settings in terms of present value—the present value of urban differential land rents equals the present value of public goods expenditure. In economies with congestion externalities or production externalities, the dynamic HGT still holds if externalities are priced correctly.

动态亨利·乔治定理与最优城市规模

摘要：静态模型中的亨利·乔治定理（Henry George Theorem）表明，当一个城市达到最优人口规模时，城市级差地租总额恰好等于纯公共品成本。本文将静态亨利·乔治定理拓展至动态框架，通过系列动态模型初步论证：以现值衡量时，动态环境下的亨利·乔治定理依然成立——城市级差地租现值等于公共品支出现值。在存在拥堵外部性或生产外部性的城市经济中，只要外部性被合理定价，动态亨利·乔治定理仍然成立。