摩根斯坦利：上海浦东发展银行 研究 03.26

MS：Shanghai Pudong Development Bank－Tax Disadvantage a Near-Term Issue

March 26, 2007 13页

Conclusion: 2006 net profits came in below estimates
but PBT was higher. Pudong’s 2006 effective tax rate
was 44%, vs. ~30% at the banks that have already
reported results. The effective tax rate is likely to fall in
line with peers with the new tax rule effective in 2008.
We revise up our 2007 and 2008 earnings estimates by
5% and 2%, respectively, and introduce 2009E
earnings of Rmb9,742 mn, up 22% YoY. We also
increase our price target from Rmb26.04 to Rmb27.97.
High visibility in translating PPP into bottom line:
NPL coverage was 151% at end 2006, (159% 3Q06)
and credit costs were ~25bps in 4Q06 (89bps full year).
We factor in credit costs of 70-75bps over the medium
term and coverage slightly higher than end-2006.
Risks to earnings are more likely to be on the upside
than the downside