International Studies of Economics

Volume 20, Issue 3

Estimating common impact in class action litigation: A two-step method

Yonghong An

集体诉讼中共同损害的估计：一种两步法

Informational differences, adaptive learning, and inflation forecast bias

Qiang Chen, Zechen Yin

信息差异、适应性学习与通胀预期偏差

How does digital economy drive the high-quality development of regional manufacturing?

Deyan Yang, Tingting Xiong

数字经济如何驱动区域制造业高质量发展？

How much and how long? The transmission of external shocks on stock market in Chinese hospitality and tourism industry

Yuan Chen,  Qikexin Yu,  Peiwen Yuan,  Yeyang Zhao

程度与时效：外部冲击对中国文旅业股票市场的传导效应

ESG rating, corporate dividends policy, and the moderating role of corporate life cycle: Cross country study

Husam Ananzeh,  Amin Khalifeh,  Hamza Alqudah,  Hassan Ali Al-Ababneh,  Hamzeh Al Amosh

ESG评级、企业股利政策与企业生命周期调节作用：一项跨国研究

Climate and political effects on agriculture: Empirical evidence from SSA

Defaru Adugna Feye,  Amsalu Bedemo Beyene,  Suchitra Krishna Kumar

气候与政治对农业的影响：来自撒哈拉以南非洲的实证证据

Advantages of regional development—A study on poverty alleviation in contiguous destitute areas

Du Hongyu

区域发展的扶贫优势——基于中国集中连片特殊困难地区的研究

摘要

Estimating common impact in class action litigation: A two-step method

Abstract：A central question in class action litigation is all or nearly all proposed class members were injured by the alleged conduct, that is, does “common impact” exist. In this paper, we demonstrate that a two-step econometric methodology an be used to estimate customer-level overcharges, providing a basis for evaluating whether common impact exists. The estimates obtained from this methodology possess desirable properties. We also address several common misunderstandings and misinterpretations of the two-step approach in practice.

集体诉讼中共同损害的估计：一种两步法

摘要：集体诉讼中的一个核心问题是指控的侵权行为是否对所有或几乎所有原告成员造成了损害，即是否存在"共同损害"。本文论证了可采用一种两步法来估计消费者层面的超额收费，从而为判定共同损害是否存在提供依据。该两步法得到的估计结果具有良好的统计特性。同时，本文还澄清了实践中对该两步方法的若干常见误解与误读。

Informational differences, adaptive learning, and inflation forecast bias

Abstract:This work highlights a previously overlooked factor that contributes to bias in private inflation forecasts—ignorance of confidential monetary rules. Additionally, it examines how this ignorance indirectly affects policy rate settings. The model proposed reconciles biases in two key forecast sources: the inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts for the output gap. Moreover, the model investigates the impact of informational differences on monetary policy transmission and identifies clear conditions under which inflation rises following a contractionary monetary policy shock.

信息差异、适应性学习与通胀预期偏差

摘要：本文揭示了一个以往被忽视的私人部门通胀预期偏误的重要来源——对机密货币政策信息的认知不足。文章进一步探讨了这种认知不足如何间接影响政策利率的制定过程。基于构建的理论模型，我们成功解释了两类预期数据中的偏差：一是专业预测者调查中所体现的通胀预期偏差，二是美联储绿皮书中所反映的产出缺口预期偏差。此外，模型还深入分析了信息差异如何影响货币政策的传导机制，并识别出在何种具体条件下，紧缩性货币政策冲击可能反而加剧通胀压力。

How does digital economy drive the high-quality development of regional manufacturing?

Abstract: Digital technologies promote economic progress. The digital economy drives the development of manufacturing. This paper explores the impact of the digital economy on the high-quality development of manufacturing using panel data from the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China. Employing the entropy method, we first measure the level of the digital economy and the high-quality development of manufacturing. Then, we divide the digital economy into three dimensions: the digital foundation, the digital application, and the digital innovation, and investigate how each dimension influences the high-quality development of manufacturing. Results show that: (1) Both the digital economy level and the high-quality development level of manufacturing exhibit steady growth, while the overall value of the Yangtze River Economic Belt stays low. (2) Three dimensions of the digital economy positively affect the high-quality development of manufacturing, with the most noticeable effect of the digital innovation, followed by the digital application and the digital foundation. (3) Threshold effect tests demonstrate that both the digital foundation and the digital application exhibit a double threshold effect on the high-quality development of the manufacturing, but the digital innovation has a single threshold effect. (4) Last but not the least, the digital foundation positively affects the high-quality development of the manufacturing in downstream and upstream regions, but less apparently influences midstream regions by the heterogeneity analysis.  Additionally, both the digital application and the digital innovation have significant effects on the high-quality development of the manufacturing across all regions.

数字经济如何驱动区域制造业高质量发展？

摘要：数字技术推动经济进步。数字经济驱动制造业发展。本文利用中国长江经济带的面板数据，探讨数字经济对制造业高质量发展的影响。首先采用熵值法测度数字经济与制造业高质量发展水平，继而将数字经济划分为数字基础、数字应用和数字创新三个维度，分别探究各维度对制造业高质量发展的作用。研究发现：(1) 数字经济水平与制造业高质量发展水平均呈现稳步增长态势，但长江经济带整体数值仍偏低。(2) 数字经济的三大维度均对制造业高质量发展产生正向促进作用，其中数字创新维度影响最为显著，数字应用与数字基础维度次之。(3) 阈值效应检验表明：数字基础与数字应用对制造业高质量发展呈现双重阈值效应，而数字创新则呈现单一阈值效应。(4) 异质性分析显示，数字基础对下游和上游地区制造业高质量发展具有正向影响，对中游地区影响则不甚明显；数字应用与数字创新则对所有区域制造业高质量发展均具有显著促进作用。

How much and how long? The transmission of external shocks on stock market in Chinese hospitality and tourism industry

Abstract： In this study, we employ the synthetic control method to evaluate the transmission of external shocks, taking COVID-19 as an example, on the stock market in the Chinese hospitality and tourism industry, specifically in the catering, hotel, cultural landscape, natural landscape, and travel agency sectors. We find an increasingly negative causal effect on stock returns in all five sectors within 1–2 days after the external shock occurred. However, this impact then gradually shrank, disappearing after 7 days. We also show that the short- and long-term causal effects of the external shock on stock volatility in the above sectors are positive and significant, due to the great uncertainty induced by the pandemic. We examine the sensitivity of stock market reactions and find that hotels are the most vulnerable among the five sectors in terms of the duration of the pandemic's negative impact. Finally, we report that larger firms in the catering and hotel sectors (compared to the other three sectors) show a greater ncrease in volatility. These findings provide valuable insights into financial market reactions to an external shock and offer implications for crisis management in the hospitality and tourism industry during such events.

程度与时效：外部冲击对中国文旅业股票市场的传导效应

摘要：本研究采用合成控制法，以公共卫生事件冲击为例，评估外部冲击对中国文旅业股票市场（涉及餐饮、酒店、文化景观、自然景观和旅行社五大细分领域）的传导效应。研究发现：在冲击发生后1-2日内，所有细分板块的股票收益率均出现日益加深的负向因果效应，但这一影响随后逐步减弱，并在7日后消失。同时，公共卫生事件所带来的不确定性使上述板块的股票波动率在短期和长期都出现显著上升。通过检验股市反应的敏感性，我们发现酒店板块受公共卫生事件负面影响的持续时间在五大板块中最长。研究还表明，餐饮和酒店板块中规模较大的企业（相较于其他三个板块）波动率增幅更为明显。这些发现为理解金融市场对外部冲击的反应提供了宝贵洞见，并对文旅行业在此类事件中的危机管理具有启示意义。

ESG rating,corporate dividends policy, and the moderating role of corporate life cycle:Cross country study

Abstract:This article investigates the link between environmental, social, and governance performance(ESG) and dividend policy, as well as how likely the corporate life cycle might moderate this association. Using cross-country data from 2010 to 2020, the findings of this study reveal that ESG has a favorable influence on corporate dividend payments as measured by dividend payout ratio, dividend yield, and dichotomous variable. This conclusion holds true when the three ESG pillars are examined independently on dividend policy measurements. Furthermore, this analysis reveals that the firm's life cycle stage moderates the association between ESG and corporate dividend policy, exhibiting a negative moderating impact. This study specifically reveals that the relationship between ESG and dividends is stronger for firms in the early stages of their life cycle than for those in the mature stages. This relationship applies to firms operating in developed economies compared to developing economies. The study findings particularly highlight the dynamic nature of the link between ESG and dividends, underlining that this relationship is dependent on the stage of a company's life cycle. Understanding this relationship may assist stakeholders, such as investors and management, in making educated decisions about dividend expectations and sustainable practices depending on the life cycle of a firm.

ESG评级、企业股利政策与企业生命周期调节作用：一项跨国研究

摘要：本文探究环境、社会与治理绩效（ESG）与股利政策之间的关联，以及企业生命周期对该关联的调节作用。基于2010至2020年的跨国数据，研究发现：ESG评级对股利支付率、股息率及二元变量衡量的企业分红水平均产生显著正向影响。当分别考察ESG三大支柱（环境、社会、治理）对股利政策指标的独立影响时，该结论依然成立。此外，分析表明企业生命周期阶段对ESG与股利政策关联具有负向调节作用：相较于成熟期企业，生命周期早期阶段企业的ESG与股利关联更强；与新兴经济体相比，该关联在发达经济体企业中表现更为显著。本研究发现特别强调了ESG与股利之间联系的动态特性，表明其关联强度取决于公司所处的生命周期阶段。理解这种关系有助于投资者与管理层等利益相关方根据企业生命周期阶段就分红预期和可持续实践做出明智决策。

Climate and political effects on agriculture: Empirical evidence from SSA

Abstract: The most of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have been affected by climate change and food insecurity problems due to the reduction of production and productivity of cereal crops in the continent. The purpose of this research was to examine the short-run and long-run effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in 24 selected SSA countries. In the study, a systematic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Model was used with recent data from 24 SSA countries from 2001 to 2020. The panel regression result revealed that temperature and precipitation showed positive significant effects whereas carbon dioxide emission had negatively influenced the cereal crop productivity in the region. Specifically, the empirical result indicates that a one percent increase in precipitation increases cereal crop productivity by 0.27%. The empirical result of the GMM model revealed that political stability, temperature, GDP per capita, trade openness, carbon dioxide emission, fertilizer consumption, and precipitation have both short-run and long-run effects, while precipitation has only a short-run effect on agricultural productivity in the study area. A key implication of this work is the realization of the lagging effects of climate change in determining cereal crop production and productivity. This study was unable to include all SSA countries because the excluded countries did not have sufficient data on the selected variables in the study. Hence, adopting high-temperature and drought-resistant types of enhanced cereal crops is advised to combat the negative effects of climate change in the study area.

气候与政治对农业的影响：来自撒哈拉以南非洲的实证证据

摘要：撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）多数国家因谷物作物产量与生产力下降，深受气候变化与粮食安全问题困扰。本研究旨在考察气候变化对24个选定SSA国家农业生产力的短期与长期影响。研究采用系统广义矩估计（GMM）模型，基于2001至2020年间24个SSA国家的最新数据进行分析。面板回归结果显示：气温与降水量对谷物作物生产力具有显著正向影响，而二氧化碳排放则产生负面效应。具体而言，实证结果表明降水量每增加1%，谷物作物生产力提升0.27%。GMM模型的实证结果表明，政治稳定性、气温、人均GDP、贸易开放度、二氧化碳排放量、化肥消耗量及降水量对研究区域农业生产力均具有短期与长期双重影响，其中降水量仅产生短期效应。本研究的重要启示在于揭示气候变化对谷物产量与生产力的滞后效应。因部分国家缺乏研究中选定变量的完整数据，本文未能涵盖所有SSA国家。据此，建议在研究区域推广耐高温与抗旱型强化谷物作物品种，以应对气候变化带来的负面效应。

Advantages of regional development—A study on poverty alleviation in contiguous destitute areas
Abstract: The 2011–2020 period is the final stage of poverty alleviation in China, which emphasizes regional development. Using county-level panel data from 2006 to 2015, we explore the impact of regional poverty alleviation policy on economic growth of contiguous destitute areas (CDAs) in China. The results show that since 2012, economy in CDAs has developed rapidly, that GDP per capita has significantly improved by 5.4% and that county GDP has significantly improved by 6.6%. The regional strategy enhances construction of infrastructure and ecological projects, and gives full play to exert synergy effect, which doubles economic growth. The impact of economic growth is heterogeneous in different regional scales, regional inequities, geographic locations, and population sizes, and lasting even if counties are lifted out of poverty. Our findings recommend regional collaboration and highlight the importance of ecological protection in poverty alleviation.

区域发展的扶贫优势——基于中国集中连片特殊困难地区的研究

摘要：2011-2020年是中国扶贫的最后阶段，这一阶段强调区域性发展。本文利用2006年至2015年的中国县级行政单位面板数据，探讨了区域性扶贫政策对中国集中连片特殊困难地区（以下简称连片区）的经济影响。结果表明，自2012年以来，连片区的经济迅速发展，人均GDP提高了约5.4%，GDP提高了约6.6%。区域性政策加强了连片区基础设施和生态项目建设，并且在协同作用下，进一步刺激了经济增长。区域性政策下的经济增长受连片区面积、初始经济水平、人口规模和地理区位的影响，并且不易产生返贫问题。因此，本文建议在扶贫工作中，应积极开展区域合作，并重视生态保护在扶贫中的重要性。