Citigroup 花旗：亚洲经济展望与策略—政治周期

Asia Economic Outlook and Strategy Political Cycles

(64页) 　30 March 2007

➤ Asia has a busy political calendar in the coming two years that could affect both the economies and markets
➤ A leadership reshuffle in China and a leadership transition in the US could facilitate faster structural adjustments in China and the region
➤ Taiwan and Thailand have potential turnaround stories, but near-term uncertainties should pressure confidence and asset prices
➤ China’s tightening, including faster currency appreciation, probably will not slow growth
➤ The US expansion is withstanding the housing downturn, and the Fed may nudge rates 25bps lower later this year
➤ We recommend scaling up risk-taking on the back of possible CNY band widening by mid-2007