GS 高盛：中国投资组合策略－

6月：稳步运行，倾向于上行

China: Portfolio Strategy China Stance-at-a-Glance

June 2007: Steady as she goes, upside bias

05.31 35页 英文

Offshore market (H-share, red chip, and P chip): We still see a
chance of a 2H2007 rally
Offshore-listed Chinese stocks gained about 6% in May (5.5% for the MSCI China and 5.8%
for the H-share index), largely on the back of positive developments in the Qualified
Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme and market expectations of further CNY
appreciation versus the USD post the widening of the USD/CNY daily trading band from
+/-0.3% to +/-0.5%.
With macro and corporate earnings growth momentum remaining strong, the favorable
liquidity and currency factors lend further support to our medium-term market view that
the H-share market is well-positioned for a 2H EPS-revision-driven rally, as well as to our
year-end H-share (HSCEI) index target of 12,000.
In addition to the conducive macro backdrop, the forces propelling our medium-term
optimistic market views are:
(1) Potential liquidity inflows from domestic money
On May 11, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) adjusted its policy for
commercial banks’ overseas wealth management activities. The revised policy allows
commercial banks to invest up to 50% of clients’ funds in overseas equity