英文文献：Working Paper 318 - A DGE Model for Growth and Development Planning: Malawi-工作文件318 -增长和发展规划DGE模式:马拉维
英文文献作者：Chuku Chuku,Jacob Oduor,Anthony Simpasa,Peter Mwanakatwe
英文文献摘要：
It was Margaret Thatcher who said, “plan your work for today and every day, then work your plan". Yet many national development plans in Africa have failed because they were either not well planned or the plans were not well worked out. We present a fully specified medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model that can be used as the macroeconomic framework for development planning. Structural peculiarities of low-income developing economies are emphasized, including limited access to credit markets by households, a prominent natural resource sector, limited labour and capital mobility, absorptive capacity constraints, and corruption leakages, among others. The model is applied to Malawi and provides a systematic way to assess the implications of alternative policy options for a new national development plan. Key insights from the policy experiments conducted with the model are as follows: (i) there is a $1.2 billion public investment requirement to move per capita income up to about $1000; (ii) debt trajectories are sustainable because investment literally pays for itself by generating future growth and a broader tax base; (iii) the traded sector contracts temporarily in favour of an expansion of the nontraded sector; (iv) growth rates under commercial borrowing options are lower, mainly because of the crowding-out effect that commercial borrowing has on private investment and consumption; (v) mild and gradual fiscal adjustments significantly improves debt indicators; and, (vi) finally, persistent adverse precipitation shocks in the form of drought spells can lead to a contraction of growth rates by up to 2 percentage points. JEL Classification: E61,O21,H54

玛格丽特?撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)曾说过:“计划好今天和每天的工作，然后按照计划工作。”然而，非洲的许多国家发展计划都失败了，原因要么是它们没有得到很好的规划，要么是这些计划没有得到很好的实施。我们提出了一个完全指定的中型动态一般均衡模型，可以作为发展规划的宏观经济框架。报告强调了低收入发展中经济体的结构性特点，包括家庭进入信贷市场的机会有限、突出的自然资源部门、劳动力和资本流动性有限、吸收能力受限和腐败外泄等。该模式适用于马拉维，为评估新的国家发展计划的其他政策选择的影响提供了系统的方法。利用该模型进行的政策实验得出的主要见解如下:(i)要将人均收入提高到约1000美元，需要12亿美元的公共投资;(二)债务轨迹是可持续的，因为投资通过产生未来的增长和扩大税基实际上是自付的;贸易部门为了扩大非贸易部门而暂时收缩;(四)商业借款方式下的增长率较低，主要是由于商业借款对私人投资和消费的挤出效应;温和渐进的财政调整大大改善了债务指标;最后，以干旱期形式出现的持续不利的降水冲击可能导致增长率下降至多2个百分点。凝胶的分类:E61 O21 H54