Fundamentals and Market Wraps:
USA:
The US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was below the expectation ------falling to 9.2% from 18.0,though we regard it not an important data.The Dow Jones rose by 05% or 21
pts,cloing at 14000.410,meeting powerfull pressure at 14000 as we mentioned before.IBM posted a 12pct jump in quarterly profit and raised its outlook.The energy sector also provided strong support after a surge in oil price.
Crude oil prices continued to surge .
Australia:
The import prices went down by 5.1%,while the export prices rose by 2.4%.The strong economy is supporting the AUD,which causes the relative lower prices of commodities from
overseas.Lower prices push the consumers to spending more ,keeping the economy strong and retraining inflation.We expected the RBA will raise interest rate in August.
After Dow had reached record new high and the oil price continue its strength,and base metals also traded higher,the market clearly responded by jumping higher on the open,adding
38 points and closing at 6422.RIO and BHP rose by 2.5% and 2% repectively,responded to the higher metals price in LME.The banking sector was mixed,some lower,some higher,and one flat.CBA rose by almost 1%.IIF deserves a mention,rising 10.833%,after Goodman bought a 9.4 stake in the company.
China:
The Shanghai composite index gained as much as 145.91 with higher volumes.We believe the higher oil price,stronger base metals prices,as well as Dow's gains.In fact,the news released
later accounted for today's gain. 27BP hike in interest rate and 15% reduction of interest rate tax stands for the end of bad news.These fiscal policy equals 71.55bp interest rate hike ,but
we can't analyse the policy in this way,as stated in the Macroeconomic theory,interest rate hike is used to limit the investment ,while the cut of tax rate is always regarded as increase of disposible income ,which leads to more consumer spending .Therefore, it is good news rather than bad one.
Shares commended:
Though we are not sure about the trend ,but it is easy to note that the oil sector will benefit a lot from the recent high oil price.How ever we don't commend the metal sector since the
high tax will be put back the profits.The shares were all commended in the previous reports.Investors may get details from http://www.gsmer.net/forumdisplay.php?f=176.
Next week's forcast:
We don't want to talk bigger to attract eyes,just tell the truth.Wether the Chinese share market will turn back to be bullish depends on next week's volumes and the appearance of
bot sectors.We will discuss the trend in the future reports.
Thanks for your time!