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2007-07-20

Fundamentals and Market Wraps:
US:
CPI rose by 0.2% in June ,which is exactly the market

expected.US FR chairman Bernanke said that the US economy

was likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of

2007.And housing would drag on growth.The Dow Jones

obvious faced pressure at 14000 level,dropping to 13768.73 at

one stage,but finally closed at 13907. We believe the subprime

mortgage market's woes are affecting the share market

continously,though today's fall is technical.
Crude oil prices rose as a result of the much lower than expected

decrease in the EIA gasoline stockpile last week.

Australia:
Glenn Stevens,Governor of the RBA delivered a speech on the

Asia Crisis in 1997.He said he was not suprised by the

appreciation of AUD ,which caused the rise of AUD today by 20

pips.
Today's ASX200 index added 55 points ,though the US market

loses.As we mentioned before,the ASX is closely related with

the US market.Thus,we regard today's gain as a miracle.The

mining metals regained strenth today.BHP and RIO rose half a

percent after 3 days loses,and financial sector continued to

recover as most of the banks posting a solid gains.
No major data released today.We are expecting the CPI next

week.

China:
China tend to sell US T-bills.It's within expectation since the

depreation of USD and the trade surplus.
CPI in July was released today,4.4% mom,much higgher than

expected,after many fiscal policies last two months,and the GDP

growth rose by 11.5%.But we noted that the PPI reduced to

2.5%,which is the lowest in 2007.We believe the lower cost and

higher sales revenues will benefit manufacturers a lot over a

long time.From the CPI and PPI curve ,it's obvious to see that

the CPI is in the uptrend while the PPI is horizontal with a little

fluctuation.Good news to macturatures' profits.
Today's share market' trend is within my forcast.After the CPI

was released at 10:00,the market reached the bottom at 10:15

.Finally the SH composite index lost 18 points today.


share commended :
No share commended to buy tomorrow.The market were not

influenced by the higher-than-expectedCPI,which we believe is

unusual and tomorrow investors will turn back to be

'rational",plus Friday .It is wise to not buy any stock.

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