The continued weak pace of recovery from the recent financial crisis and global downturn has prompted us to reassess our growth forecasts for the G-20 economies. We now expect GDP growth across these nations to be weaker than previously thought, as the structural economic adjustments that need to ensue materialize only slowly in the face of the global slowdown.

In the G-20 advanced economies, we expect only a gradual strengthening in growth over the coming two years. Fiscal consolidation and volatility in financial markets will continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence, while heightened uncertainty hampers spending, hiring and investment decisions. Overall, we expect real GDP growth in the G-20 advanced economies of around 1.3% in 2012, followed by 1.6% in 2013 and 2.0% in 2014. For 2013,that is around 0.5 percentage points (ppts) weaker than in our August forecast update.

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Global Macro-Risk Outlook updated for slower growth.pdf
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