Citigropu 花旗：亚太区经济展望

Asia-Pacific Economics/Strategy 31 July 2007

Asia Economic Outlook and Strategy Capital Inflows and Monetary Policy

64页 英文 07.31

➤ US subprime problems caused the repricing of
corporate credit risk, but generally strong
corporate and financial balance sheets should be
able to weather the storm
➤ Contagion from other credit markets has hit
emerging markets, but is unlikely to undermine
the resilient fundamentals
➤ While Asia suffered from capital flight ten years
ago, today capital inflows are one of the biggest
policy challenges
➤ A combination of rapid liberalization of capital
accounts and rigidity of exchange rates could lead
to major risks
➤ We raise our GDP forecasts for China on strongerthan-
expected momentum, keeping in mind the
risk of overheating and external shocks