MS 摩根斯坦利：Agile Property－Making the Giant Leap – Our Top Pick in the Sector

08.01 23页 英文

Sector Top Pick; Reiterate Overweight; PT raised to
HK$19, 37% upside: We believe the ‘true’ value of
Agile is yet to be fully appreciated by the market. Strong
earnings growth into 2008E and its ability to mobilize its
execution excellence outside of Guangdong will
underpin a continuation of the stock’s outperformance
and close the valuation gap with its larger cap peers, in
our view. Our new price target is based on our 12-month
forward NAV and implies 21.8x our 2008E EPS.
Numbers still make sense: Agile trades at a 13%
discount to our current NAV of HK$15.93 and 15.9x our
2008E EPS, while the sector trades at a 29% premium
to current NAV and 21.1x 2008E EPS. Our price target
implies 21.8x 2008E EPS, which in line with the current
sector average, but translates into a sensible PEG of
0.53x. We forecast 12-month NAV growth of 20%.
Some ‘gems’ are still hidden: Based on our recent site
visits and a thorough review of the details of Agile’s
landbank, we are convinced that some ‘gems’ are still
hidden. Marking-to-market current ASPs and recent
land transactions were the reasons for our upward
revision of current NAV estimate to HK$15.93.
Value creation underpinning the “Giant Leap”: In our
view, there are good chances that Agile will surprise on
the upside with rising land/property prices in Guangdong
and successful launch of projects in other provinces in
4Q2007E. The significant land replenishments over the
past 12 months should fuel strong earnings growth to
2009E and beyond.
Morgan