What does the future hold for the global economy? Willliving standards rise worldwide, as today’s poor countries leapfrogtechnologies to catch up with richer countries? Or will prosperity slip through our fingers as greed and corruption lead usto deplete vital resources and degrade thenatural environment on which human well-being depends? Humanity faces nogreater challenge than to ensure a world of prosperity rather than a world thatlies in ruins.
Like a novel with two possible endings, ours is a story yetto be written in this new century. There is nothing inevitable about the spread– or the collapse – of prosperity. More than we know (or perhaps care toadmit), the future is a matter of human choice, not mere prediction.
Despite the ongoing economic crisis in Europe and theUnited States, the developing world has sustained rapid economic growth. Whilethe International Monetary Fund forecasts that the advancedeconomies will grow by just 1.5% in 2013, developing-country growth isprojected to reach 5.6%. Asia’s developing economies, now the world’s pacesetters, are expected to grow by 7.2%, with outputin Sub-Saharan Africa set to rise by a healthy 5.7%.
What is happening is both powerful and clear. Technologiesthat were once found only in rich countries now belong to the entire world.Mobile phone coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, has gone from nearlyzero subscribers 20 years ago to around 700 million today. And those phones arehelping to bring banking, health care, education, business, governmentservices, and entertainment to the poor. Within a few years, the vast majorityof the world will have access to wirelessbroadband.
Yet there is another truthas well. Last year was the hottest ever recorded in the US. Droughts afflicted around 60% of US counties,including the breadbasket states of the Midwestand the Great Plains. In October, an extraordinary “superstorm” smashed into the Atlantic coastline around New Jersey,causing losses of around $60 billion. Climate problems – floods, droughts, heatwaves, extreme storms, massive forest fires, and more – also ravaged many other parts of the world in 2012,including China, Australia, Southeast Asia, the Caribbean,and Africa’s Sahel region.
These environmental disasters are occurring with risingfrequency, as they are partly caused by human actions, such as deforestation, coastal erosion, massive pollution,and, of course, the greenhouse-gas emissionsthat are changing the world’s climate and acidifyingthe oceans. What is new is that scourges likeclimate change – until recently described as a future threat – are now clearand present dangers. Scientists have even given a name to our era, the Anthropocene, inwhich humanity (“anthropos” in Greek) is having a large-scale impact on theplanet’s ecosystems.
Herein lies our great challenge – the one that willdetermine whether we follow the path of prosperity or ruin. The rapidly growingdeveloping countries cannot simply follow the economic-growth path that today’srich countries traveled. If they try, the world economy will push the planetbeyond safe operating conditions. Temperatures will rise, storms willintensify, the oceans will become more acidic,and species will go extinct in vast numbers astheir habitats are destroyed.
The simple fact is that humanity faces a stark choice. If the world economy’s current growthpatterns continue, we face ecological disaster. If the world economy embraces anew growth pattern – one that harnesses advancedtechnologies like smart phones, broadband, precision agriculture, and solarpower – we can spread prosperity while saving the planet.
I call today’s growth pattern the business-as-usual option;the smart-technology growth pattern, by contrast, represents thesustainable-development option. Business as usual can work for a while, but itwill end in tears, while the sustainable-development path can lead to long-termprosperity.
So, what will it take to write the happy ending? First, wemust recognize that we, as a global society, have a choice to make. Business asusual is comfortable. We think we understand it. Yet it is not good enough: onour current trajectory, short-term prosperity is coming at the cost of too manyfuture crises.
Second, we must recognize the powerful new tools andtechnologies that we have at hand. Using advanced information technologies –computers, satellite mapping, image processing, expert systems, and more – wenow have the means to grow more food with less environmental damage; improvepublic health for rich and poor alike; distribute more electricity with lowergreenhouse-gas emissions; and make our cities more livable and healthier, evenas urbanization raises their populations by billions in the coming decades.
Third, we should set bold goalsfor the years ahead – to spread prosperity and improve public health whilesaving the planet. Fifty years ago, US President John F. Kennedy said that weshould to go to the moon not because it was easy, but because it was hard – ittested the best in us. In our generation, sustainable development will be ourtest, encouraging us to use our creativity and human values to establish a pathof sustainable well-being on our crowded and endangered planet.
I am proud and honored that United NationsSecretary-General Ban Ki-moon has asked me to help mobilize the world’sexpertise as we seek to achieve that goal. The greatest talents in oursocieties – in universities, businesses, NGOs, and especially among the world’syoung people – are ready to take on our greatest challenges, and are joiningthe UN’s new SustainableDevelopment Solutions Network. In the months and years ahead, these leaderswill share their visions of a prosperous andsustainable global society.