MS 摩根士丹利：中国流动性过剩之战略透视

（英文版 43页）08.13 August 13, 2007

Unconventional Liquidity – Ways In, Ways Out, and Opportunities

A Strategic Perspective on China’s Dealing with Massive Money Flow

Agenda
• Ways In:
– Triple engines pumping liquidity in: trade surplus, FDI and speculation;
– Inflexibility of money dealing structure: forex control, financial asset
shortage and tight land supply;
– Limitations of monetary policy to cope with structural flood of money;
– Symptoms of overheating: high-flying asset prices, excessive
speculation and runaway investment.
• Ways Out:
– Private outbound financial investment: QDII;
– Government outbound financial investment: SIC;
– Government-driven FDI;
– Input cost rationalization;
– Forex deregulation.
• Opportunities:
– QDII: What’s the arbitrage?;
– SIC: Re-rating of “strategic assets”;
– Cost rationalization: Raising hopes for refiners and IPPs.