请教一下,我对美元对人民币的汇率作了一次单位根检验 用的是df,得到的结果如下:
ADF Test Statistic -2.69981548079 1% Critical Value* -4.0673421346
5% Critical Value -3.46197591968
10% Critical Value -3.15704104235
*MacKinnon critical values for rejection of hypothesis of a unit root.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(AME)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/22/07 Time: 00:55
Sample(adjusted): 1994:02 2001:03
Included observations: 86 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
AME(-1) -0.0481026498557 0.0178170138655 -2.69981548079 0.00840601379282
C 0.39318097577 0.151366438122 2.59754395128 0.011105900089
@TREND(1994:01) 7.38115020936e-05 8.58075886817e-05 0.860197835968 0.392157906635
R-squared 0.22287818058 Mean dependent var -0.00491162790698
Adjusted R-squared 0.204152353606 S.D. dependent var 0.0153129120342
S.E. of regression 0.013660693767 Akaike info criterion -5.71432745602
Sum squared resid 0.0154890079982 Schwarz criterion -5.62871068987
Log likelihood 248.716080609 F-statistic 11.9021809232
Durbin-Watson stat 1.58747194152 Prob(F-statistic) 2.85297371789e-05
很显然,按照这个结果,应该不是单整的,可是我看美元汇率的时序图,应该是单整的阿,而且我在别人的论文里看的他们的计算结果也是单整的,请教一下,这可能是什么原因造成的呢?
ps:adf的方法我也试过,同样不是单整地,但是按照我下载的论文,其结果就应该是单整的,不解,请高手指点