GS 高盛：中国银行业

－整体盈利较好，但仍面临宏观风险

China: Banks Intact earnings outlook but still macro headwinds

（35页） 09.13 September 13 英文

China banks posted average 71% yoy/51% hoh pretax profit growth in 1H07, with NIM/funding costs, fee growth and ROA/RORWA expansion modestly exceeding our/market expectations. Moreover, NIM/funding costs and fee growth for big banks (including CMB) benefited more from the booming A-share market than other banks. Our analysis shows a strong A-share market contributed c. 8% of pre-tax profits and 4% of revenue for these H-share banks in 1H07.

Table of contents
1H07 results review: funding costs, fees, ROA better than expected 3
Banks with strong deposit/retail franchises benefit more from the booming A-share market 10
Transmission mechanism of potential US macro slowdown: we would expect a manageable 4%-5%
slowdown in earnings growth 12
Retain neutral sector stance on China inflation risks 15
ICBC and CMB are our top H-share picks 17
Disclosures 33