Hypothesized

Trace

0.05

No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Statistic

Critical Value

Prob.**

None *

0.730064

20.43662

15.49471

0.0083

At most 1

0.051496

0.793038

3.841466

0.3732

Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

Sample (adjusted): 2009Q1 2013Q1

Included observations: 17 after adjustments

Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

LPMI

LGDP

LPMI(-1)

-0.133449

-0.871216

(0.16827)

(0.70965)

[-0.79308]

[-1.22766]

LPMI(-2)

-0.133624

-0.847034

(0.16861)

(0.71111)

[-0.79249]

[-1.19115]

LPMI(-3)

-0.134653

-0.866495

(0.16880)

(0.71189)

[-0.79772]

[-1.21718]

LPMI(-4)

0.870345

-0.799147

(0.16839)

(0.71016)

[ 5.16870]

[-1.12530]

LGDP(-1)

0.142432

0.682990

(0.07371)

(0.31085)

[ 1.93245]

[ 2.19719]

LGDP(-2)

0.001435

0.013112

(0.09372)

(0.39524)

[ 0.01531]

[ 0.03317]

LGDP(-3)

-0.016054

0.088070

(0.09348)

(0.39426)

[-0.17173]

[ 0.22338]

LGDP(-4)

-0.049090

-0.325604

(0.07464)

(0.31479)

[-0.65770]

[-1.03437]

C

2.386616

17.49906

(3.14314)

(13.2560)

[ 0.75931]

[ 1.32009]

R-squared

0.998567

0.694684

Adj. R-squared

0.997133

0.389368

Sum sq. resids

0.007752

0.137890

S.E. equation

0.031130

0.131287

F-statistic

696.6646

2.275295

Log likelihood

41.26823

16.80141

Akaike AIC

-3.796262

-0.917813

Schwarz SC

-3.355149

-0.476700

Mean dependent

4.767494

2.180580

S.D. dependent

0.581410

0.168009