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Contents Page
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................3
I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................6
II. The Evolving Structure of Global Trade ...............................................................................8
A. The Diffusion of Key Players in Global Trade .........................................................8
B. Growing Trade Interconnectedness .........................................................................11
C. The Growing Role of Global Supply Chains ..........................................................15
D. The Diffusion of High-Technology Exporters ........................................................21
E. Rising Export Similarity ..........................................................................................27
F. Past Trends and Implications for Trade Outlook .....................................................31
III. Global Trade and Relative Prices: A Sectoral Elasticities Approach ................................35
A. Aggregate Results ...................................................................................................36
B. Sectoral Effects .......................................................................................................40
IV. Conclusion and Policy Implications ..................................................................................46
References ................................................................................................................................65