GS 高盛-2007年10月中国策略报告：

所有的眼睛注视流动性和政策面

China: Portfolio Strategy China Stance-at-a-Glance

October 2007: All eyes on liquidity and politics

40页 09.28

Chinese stocks had a good run in September, owing to positive liquidity, EPS revisions, and US easing. We continue to see these constructive factors buttressing our positive Hshare market view. Investors should proactively manage their portfolio exposure using the “3 Ds” strategy.

Offshore market (H shares, red chips, P chips): liquidity matters
After experiencing a roller-coaster ride in August amid the conflicting forces of US credit
contagion on the one hand and positive development of the DII scheme on the other,
offshore-listed Chinese equities reasserted their strong upward momentum, with the Hshare
index and MSCI China index gaining 14% and 13%, respectively, in September. We
attribute this impressive performance mainly to the following three factors:
• US easing: The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the fed fund rate by 50 basis points (bp)
on September 18. Equity markets globally, and China in particular, reacted very
positively to this upside surprise, as the H-share market not only fully recovered from
the credit-related sell-off in August but also recorded new highs since the Fed’s easing
decision. This decisive move by the Fed undoubtedly restored market confidence in
US and global growth prospects. The monetary easing policy— “imported” to Hong
Kong via the currency peg—has also spurred investors’ interest in the Hong Kong
stock market, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks benefiting from the ripple effect
given their solid earnings growth potential.
• Potential domestic liquidity inflows: Although the framework of domestic
individual investors (DII) buying overseas equities had already been introduced by the
People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the implementation details have been absent so far.
On September 21, senior government officials were quoted as saying the aggregate
investment quota for the DII scheme would be around US$100 bn initially, which
represents almost 7% of the market cap for all Chinese companies listed in Hong
Kong. Although the timing of the commencement of this scheme is still uncertain, we
think this clarification will help reinforce the plausibility of the DII scheme and allay
market concerns that the potential DII quota would be too insignificant to be
considered a favorable catalyst for the H-share market. Also, anecdotal evidence and
media reports suggest that many domestic individual investors are interested in
travelling to Hong Kong during the golden week holiday in the week beginning
October 1, primarily to look for investment opportunities in the H-share market, as
opposed to engaging in leisure activities, such as shopping and sight-seeing, which
usually are the main attractions for tourists in Hong Kong.
Additionally, the overwhelming response of subscribers to the recently launched
Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) funds by domestic mutual funds
shows that domestic investors appear very keen to explore inves