GS 高盛：每日中国报告 10.04

China-Daily-Insights 10.04 8页

Today’s focus
Asia Economics Flash: China: Currency appreciation and shifts in relative prices and profits
Headline news
Foreign trade of textile, garments rising (China Daily)
11% of China's fiscal expenditure goes to social security (Xinhua)
China's coal output may top 2.5 bln tons in 2007 (Xinhua)
China's bank card transactions surge in golden week (Xinhua)
Fed Economists Say China Exports Have `Mixed Effects' in U.S. (Bloomberg)
Asia Economics Flash: China: Currency appreciation and shifts in relative prices and profits, Hong Liang
• Upstream price inflation has been lagging behind downstream prices this year.
• This may reflect a broader trend of relative price changes induced by the appreciation of the CNY.
• We believe a more appreciated CNY has led to a shift in relative prices and profit distribution favoring the downstream/non-tradable industries vs. the upstream/tradable