Citigroup 花旗：中国未来五年展望 

10.18       18-Oct-07        10页

Asia Macro Views  

China in the Next Five Years  Key points

 

 

➤ Chinese leaders adopted several strategies for dealing with the
problems of economic successes, including “peaceful ascendancy”
on external relations, “harmonious society” to reduce social tension
and “scientific development model” to sustain rapid growth
➤ They have so far been most successful in addressing the social
problems, evidenced by increasing social welfare coverage,
improving perceptions of safety and corruption, and stabilizing
income gaps
➤ We suspect, however, that the government has been shifting from
being authoritarian to populist. While the top leaders appear very
popular, their macroeconomic policies have recently become less
effective in addressing the imbalance and risk problems
➤ Over the next five years, the government is likely to continue its
current policy strategies. Strong growth should sustain, while the
inflation trend could pick up gradually. The major risk is Taiwan Strait
relations over the next six months