高盛高华-GS AMERICAS METALS & MINING BA

October 17, 2007 Americas: Metals & Mining: Base Metals
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1
October 17, 2007        8页
Americas: Metals & Mining: Base Metals
Copper preview 3Q07: Adjusting estimates, reiterate Attractive view

 

Adjusting 3Q EPS for lower metal prices, strong FX and disruptions
We are adjusting our 3Q07 EPS estimates for base metal miners FCX, PCU,
GMEXICO.MX, and ANTO.L to reflect lower than expected commodity
price realizations and stronger currencies during the quarter. Nevertheless,
we remain bullish on base metal prices going into 2008. PCU earnings had
the largest adjustment due to an estimated 30kt lost in copper production
at its Cananea mine in 3Q07. Copper prices averaged $3.50/lb compared to
our $3.58/lb estimate, while silver and gold prices averaged $12.69 and
$680/oz vs our forecasts of $13.00 and $690/oz, respectively. Our 2007 EPS
estimates declined in a range from 1.4-5.4%.
Copper remains our favorite base metal
Our 2008 and 2009 copper estimates at $4.19 and $3.80/lb, respectively, are
well above consensus at 40% in both years. Since our changes to base
metal prices of September 3rd, consensus copper estimates have been
revised up nearly 10% in 2008 and 18% in 2009. We expect this trend to
continue. We believe that strong demand from BRICS economies in 2008
will test the relatively low level of copper inventories and lagging mine
supply, which continues to be constrained by structural issues (i.e. lack of
skilled labor and equipment) and disruptions (i.e. strikes, accidents). In
addition, while the US remains an important demand component of global