高盛高华-GS MORE FOCUSED ON THE OLD

Global Economics Weekly
Issue No: 07/35
October 17, 2007            12页

 

 

More Focused on the Old Bubble than a New One
With emerging market equities – most recently
China in particular – in the middle of a large
and sustained bull run, talk is again surfacing
of whether these assets are moving into
‘bubble’ territory.
Comparing the situation to other recent
bubbles, many of the key ingredients that spell
the end of these episodes are missing. Those
ingredients included not only very stretched
valuations, but sharp net inflows of capital to
the affected sector, a significant acceleration in
credit growth or capital-raising in the relevant
areas, and an unusually large rise in actual
spending.
While country stories vary, looking at
emerging markets in general, valuations
appear far less stretched than in other past
bubbles, even in the most extended markets.
What is even clearer is that the real economic
consequences that you would expect to see –
large net capital inflows and widening current
account deficits, sharp increases in credit
growth and a rapid increase in investment –
are not yet broadly visible. In a few places