Pairwise Granger Causality Tests   
Date: 10/23/07   Time: 18:43   
Sample: 1979 2003   
Lags: 2   
   
  Null Hypothesis:                      Obs F-Statistic Probability
   
  UT does not Granger Cause Y 23  0.62333  0.54733
  Y does not Granger Cause UT       2.19786  0.13995
   
这个结果能说明ut是y的原因么？  是双向因果关系还是单向因果关系？

Pairwise Granger Causality Tests   
Date: 10/23/07   Time: 18:45   
Sample: 1979 2003   
Lags: 2   
   
  Null Hypothesis:                                  Obs F-Statistic Probability
   
  EA does not Granger Cause UT          23  0.64839  0.53468
  UT does not Granger Cause EA                10.3491  0.00102
   
  EI does not Granger Cause  UT           23  0.42036  0.66309
  UT does not Granger Cause EI                  4.27918  0.03017
   
  ES does not Granger Cause UT          23  4.60122  0.02432
  UT does not Granger Cause ES                1.38499  0.27576
   
  EI does not Granger Cause EA            23  7.19181  0.00506
  EA does not Granger Cause EI                  0.97361  0.39674
   
  ES does not Granger Cause EA           23  1.91597  0.17604
  EA does not Granger Cause ES                 5.92136  0.01057
   
  ES does not Granger Cause EI            23  2.96722  0.07696
  EI does not Granger Cause  ES                 3.67198  0.04598
   
这个结果是分别两两说明ut,ea,ei,es因果关系吗？ 后面的F统计量，和P统计量， 应该如何判断呢？

论文讨论急用，无奈接触计量知识太少，请各位高手简单解释一下这两组eviews算出的结果，请赐教啊
   

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[此贴子已经被作者于2007-10-23 19:01:11编辑过]