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The monetary / growth regime is changing
Our base case is for an inflection towards tighter DM monetary policy and
better US growth, and flattish commodities prices. EM assets are obviously
starting to adjust rapidly to the change in monetary conditions.
More EMs may be hurt by rates than helped by growth
We survey the EM equity markets and conclude that there are more issues
with the change from easing to tightening than in the modest impact from
US growth. Many EMs are dependent on domestic demand, excess credit
growth, and foreign inflows; those situations are quickly becoming difficult.
BR / TR / SA: significant headwinds, vulnerable valuations
Brazil and South Africa remain challenged by weak growth, high inflation,
and CA deficits; we add Turkey to our underweights because higher core
rates make its imbalances a serious concern. EM valuations have dropped
— but the heavy discounts are in Russia, China, and Korea. We see more
potential downside in our underweights of Turkey, Brazil, and South Africa.
Broad EM should underperform DM, prefer KR and MX
We argue there are now fewer reasons to warrant broad EM exposure and
that a selective approach is preferable. We prefer Korea and Mexico for
their better US exposure and manageable risk in portfolio flows.