【机构】德意志银行
【日期】2013.9
【篇幅】PDF56

【目录】
Executive Summary ............................................................. 3
The last thing Europe needs is an upturn in demand .......................................... 3
Europe – Where to demand and what need supply? ........................................... 4
What are the implications for 2020 pricing? ........................................................ 6
Corporate implications – near term; long term .................................................... 8
Crisis in the making? ......................................................... 11
Heading for a 2014/5 spike ................................................................................ 11
Its midsummer and spot gas is trading $10/mmbtu .......................................... 13
Europe – where will it source its gas? ............................... 16
Has Europe condemned itself to Asian style pricing? ....................................... 16
Where to European gas demand? ...................................................................... 16
European Supply – what are the options? ......................... 23
How long the whip hand for the pipeline boys? ................................................ 23
1) Indigenous supply – a picture of continued erosion ...................................... 25
Where has European unconventional moved to? .............................................. 26
2) Other pipeline – The Caspian helps but its limited ......................................... 30
3) LNG – Can North America fill the gap? .......................................................... 32
What are the implications for 2020 pricing? ...................................................... 39
The corporates – who wins, who loses ............................. 42
Multiple impacts – often hard to call.................................................................. 42
LNG players – Europe will need a lot of LNG ..................................................... 42
European Upstream – Near term opportunity but modest ................................ 43
Gazprom – strong near term; difficult choices later ........................................... 44
Utilities – Regulatory versus pass through ......................................................... 45
Infrastructure Plays – Increased volatility, increased opportunity through
optionality ........................................................................................................... 48
Appendix A - China gas ..................................................... 49