瑞银（UBS) 全球策略 全球油价预测  Global Oil Price Forecasts

2007年11月19日 发布，pdf 格式，共26页

Oil price forecast ratcheted up: Supply
c onstraints versus slower demand growth
􀂄 Raising our Brent and WTI oil price decks significantly, extending to 2012
We raise our oil price forecasts in three parts. Compared to our previous targets we
raise Brent oil’s Q4’07 average by 19% to $82.30 per barrel (WTI +28% to
$85.50b). Annual averages in 2007-‘09 rise 6%, 13%, and 23% to $74b for Brent
in 2008. We are extending our outlook by three years and forecast that in 2012
Brent and WTI will average $81 and $82, respectively. We also inflated our
normalized prices significantly to $73 Brent and $75b WTI in 2012 dollars.
􀂄 Supply constraints remain the key drivers in a fast changing environment
In the next five years, we expect non-Opec oil production will begin to decline and
global spare capacity will shrink to half its current size. Our view is based on
bottom-up analysis of new developments and decline rates, combined with a
perhaps optimistic view of growth from Iraq and other big wild-cards.
􀂄 Oil demand, the key variable, stays suppressed – but not by price alone
Ongoing erosion of demand growth in North America will, we think, be
exacerbated by slower global GDP growth. Oil demand growth accelerates, in our
view, only in the 2010-‘12 time frame, driven by GDP and tempered by high prices
and greater efforts at efficiency-gains and conservation.
􀂄 Near term, markets show risks are skewed to still higher prices
There are the usual risks. But we highlight the emerging upside risk that markets
may shift structural-pricing from marginal supply to rationing oil demand.